Yes, after availing of the EU/IMF Stability Fund and paying a modest 5% rate of interest on the €110b in funding required to stabilise the country's finances, the IMF and the EU have insisted on the following austerity measures:
*Reduce the budget deficit from 13.6% to 3% by 2014
*Pay freeze on all public sector employees
*Scrapping the annual bonus scheme (basically a 20% bonus on wages)
*Increase in the retirement age from the current one of 62
*Full pension rights increased from minimum 37 to 40 years service
*Pensions to reflect average rather than final salary in the public sector
*VAT from 21% to 23%, increases to alcohol, cigarettes and fuel taxation
*Taxing of illegal construcion
*Privatisation of various state and semi-state bodies
Above we can see what the dreaded IMF will insist on just to provide Greece with the funding required to keep the nation afloat. Scary eh? Not really is it?
Let's be clear, regardless of our banking crisis and our incompetent governance, we are not Greece, not by a long way. Firstly we never lied about our balance of payments, we are a genuine open market economy, we have a generous corporate rate of tax, we have a language that everyone understands and we don't rely on tourism as an exclusive means to wealth.
So if we were to avail of the solidarity fund, how much worse would it be compared to the austerity measures that we have put in place and are going to put in place? Not a lot based on the evidence above.
But in the meantime, let's just destroy what's left of our economy while we pretend that the markets will allow us a sub-5% yield and that we can actually manage to get our deficit to 3% by 2014....
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
2011 and the Death of the Gombeen Princes
With the GE of 2011 we will finally see the end of a particular plague in Irish politics. The nature of our democratic process always lends itself to a coalition government, and the 2+1 nature of previous governments has had the added affliction of having independents and pseudo-independents all extracting their pound of flesh in order to support the status quo. But it's not as simple as that. The independent gombeen princes can only garner so much in favour and kind but retain their seats on the backbenches. Their power is limited compared to the real princes, who, because of their ability to top the local polls and bring in one or more TD's based on their surplus and preferences, have sought and maintained a ministry role within government and then used their influences at national level to bring favour to their local constituency.
And so since the early 1980's we have had a cyclical scenario in Irish politics where, thanks to the withdrawal of local taxation - which reinforced the reduction in the perceived role of councillors against TD's - we had a situation where people voted on local issues rather than national ones, nothing new I understand, but now a perception grew that by voting for independents and certain politicians, the constituents would gain in terms of employment, access to services, and improvement to those services and infrastructure. And this became self-prophesying. What was the point in voting for a national candidate when a local driven candidate could offer so much more in terms of payback? Thus we have 30 years where the local and parastatal nature of Irish politics and semi-state bodies has only increased their relevence and importance.
In order to bring this to a natural conclusion, we also have to pay attention to the other topic that has ruined our political landscape and that is the nature of legacy politics.
Roughly speaking, and paying little attention to offending sensibilities, legacy politics is literally dying on its feet. The idea of voting for a political party purely for family reasons is an anachronistic trapping from the past. By and large it benefits only two parties, FF and FG. A generalisation and perhaps a truism, is that these voters are both rural and aged. We have already seen how the rural/urban divide is striking in terms of how the respective voters vote. It's FF/FG in the rural areas and Labour/FG in the urban ones. The significance however, is that as this century continues along, populations continue to cluster towards the cities and away from these legacy strongholds. Furthermore, the forthcoming decade of stagnation will further increase the legacy flight by means of emigration to urban and foreign destination.
And so in 2011, we will have a coalition government with a comparative enormous majority over the opposition. FF, Green, SF and Independent TD's will be completely irrelevant in terms of importance in local and indeed national politics, The Irish electorate are no fools in terms of electing self-serving politicians. What is the point in electing these TD's if they are in no position to action on the promises whispered in bars, funerals and houses of their constituents? We will, after a very long time, finally have a government with a full mandate to govern on national issues only, with a sufficient majority to see things through, and a genuine opportunity to bring about genuine political reform.
It is at this point that we reach the unknown. Strategists in Labour and FG will be spending quite a lot if time cogitating on their most important task, and that is, remaining in power and a further reduction in FF's power-base. And therein lies the rub. Unless the forthcoming coalition engenders genuine political reform by doing away with the local parastatal nature of Irish politics, promoting local government to its proper place and installing a list system, we risk the possibility of returning to this awful spectre within 5 years. This cannot happen again. The unbelievable circumstances that have arisen to allow this change occur - and the price we are paying for it - must not be wasted. It is imperative that Labour and FG launch their campaigns on a joint platform of wide-reaching reform. This opportunity can only come about in the best of times and the worst of times.
And so since the early 1980's we have had a cyclical scenario in Irish politics where, thanks to the withdrawal of local taxation - which reinforced the reduction in the perceived role of councillors against TD's - we had a situation where people voted on local issues rather than national ones, nothing new I understand, but now a perception grew that by voting for independents and certain politicians, the constituents would gain in terms of employment, access to services, and improvement to those services and infrastructure. And this became self-prophesying. What was the point in voting for a national candidate when a local driven candidate could offer so much more in terms of payback? Thus we have 30 years where the local and parastatal nature of Irish politics and semi-state bodies has only increased their relevence and importance.
In order to bring this to a natural conclusion, we also have to pay attention to the other topic that has ruined our political landscape and that is the nature of legacy politics.
Roughly speaking, and paying little attention to offending sensibilities, legacy politics is literally dying on its feet. The idea of voting for a political party purely for family reasons is an anachronistic trapping from the past. By and large it benefits only two parties, FF and FG. A generalisation and perhaps a truism, is that these voters are both rural and aged. We have already seen how the rural/urban divide is striking in terms of how the respective voters vote. It's FF/FG in the rural areas and Labour/FG in the urban ones. The significance however, is that as this century continues along, populations continue to cluster towards the cities and away from these legacy strongholds. Furthermore, the forthcoming decade of stagnation will further increase the legacy flight by means of emigration to urban and foreign destination.
And so in 2011, we will have a coalition government with a comparative enormous majority over the opposition. FF, Green, SF and Independent TD's will be completely irrelevant in terms of importance in local and indeed national politics, The Irish electorate are no fools in terms of electing self-serving politicians. What is the point in electing these TD's if they are in no position to action on the promises whispered in bars, funerals and houses of their constituents? We will, after a very long time, finally have a government with a full mandate to govern on national issues only, with a sufficient majority to see things through, and a genuine opportunity to bring about genuine political reform.
It is at this point that we reach the unknown. Strategists in Labour and FG will be spending quite a lot if time cogitating on their most important task, and that is, remaining in power and a further reduction in FF's power-base. And therein lies the rub. Unless the forthcoming coalition engenders genuine political reform by doing away with the local parastatal nature of Irish politics, promoting local government to its proper place and installing a list system, we risk the possibility of returning to this awful spectre within 5 years. This cannot happen again. The unbelievable circumstances that have arisen to allow this change occur - and the price we are paying for it - must not be wasted. It is imperative that Labour and FG launch their campaigns on a joint platform of wide-reaching reform. This opportunity can only come about in the best of times and the worst of times.
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Paddy Power odds on final recapitalising Anglo-Irish
Hello punters.
We asked our favourite bookies to give us odds on the how much money we're going to plough into our least favourite banks. Here's what they had to say:
Singles Only. Applies to the final cost of the recapitalisation of Anglo Irish Bank as confirmed in an official statement by the Department of Finance. PP decision final.
We asked our favourite bookies to give us odds on the how much money we're going to plough into our least favourite banks. Here's what they had to say:
Singles Only. Applies to the final cost of the recapitalisation of Anglo Irish Bank as confirmed in an official statement by the Department of Finance. PP decision final.
| ||||
| ||||
| ||||
| ||||
| ||||
| ||||
| ||||
|
Sneakily they've lumped all the €34b+ into one set of odds, thus preventing us from having a 5 to 1 shot on €40b, my favoured final cost. Still, this represents the only way we are likely to get any of our money back on Anglo, so be my guest....
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Here we go again....
Let's look at another Green classic shall we?
You all know that we are about to receive a 5% hike in ESB charges this winter. The timing could not be worse, the reasons for this being self-explanatory. The main cause of the increase is the levy surcharged to support the burning at our peat-burning power stations, for which there are various legislation that insists we must operate. Typically, this is to ensure that we have an independent power source in case our importation of fuel sources are ever shut off.
This perspective is of course, so 1970's. The Russians are not going to turn off the gas, OPEC is not going to shut down oil supply and we are busy building inter-connectors to the UK and beyond for nuclear power amonst others.
So what do we know about electricity derived from burning peat?
Well, we know that it is the most expensive format we have in producing electricity.
We know that it is the worst polluter and CO2 transmitter of all our energy sources.
We know that the EU has legislation and is bringing in further restrictions to reduce and then stop the use of peat bogs for fuel purposes as per the various EU directives on the protection of habitats.
Eamon Ryan has been the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources for over three years now. He is perceived as the least incompetent Green TD, and certainly as an able minister compared to John Gormley.
And yet, one would think that the first thing a Green Minister of Energy would do is seek to repeal the archaic laws on peat burning stations. After all, it's too expensive, it's too polluting and it's environmentally unacceptable. So for three years the minister sits on his hands while his colleague, Mr Gormley, fully enforces EU laws on protecting habitats by making it unlawful for turf cutters to cut their turf on their own land.
This is a perfect synopsis of Green policy. They don't get the big, medium or small picture. They don't understand basic ideology and policy changes that deal with big issues and conveniently ignore small ones (like small time turf cutting and use of commercial vehicles).
They are the worst, hypocritical, Neanderthal, moronic policy makers in the history of this State, because unlike FF who enact policies to make FF look good whilst lining the pockets of themselves and their friends, they enact policies or make statements that they firmly believe in, without actually thinking them through.
Please ensure the extinction of this species at the next election.....
You all know that we are about to receive a 5% hike in ESB charges this winter. The timing could not be worse, the reasons for this being self-explanatory. The main cause of the increase is the levy surcharged to support the burning at our peat-burning power stations, for which there are various legislation that insists we must operate. Typically, this is to ensure that we have an independent power source in case our importation of fuel sources are ever shut off.
This perspective is of course, so 1970's. The Russians are not going to turn off the gas, OPEC is not going to shut down oil supply and we are busy building inter-connectors to the UK and beyond for nuclear power amonst others.
So what do we know about electricity derived from burning peat?
Well, we know that it is the most expensive format we have in producing electricity.
We know that it is the worst polluter and CO2 transmitter of all our energy sources.
We know that the EU has legislation and is bringing in further restrictions to reduce and then stop the use of peat bogs for fuel purposes as per the various EU directives on the protection of habitats.
Eamon Ryan has been the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources for over three years now. He is perceived as the least incompetent Green TD, and certainly as an able minister compared to John Gormley.
And yet, one would think that the first thing a Green Minister of Energy would do is seek to repeal the archaic laws on peat burning stations. After all, it's too expensive, it's too polluting and it's environmentally unacceptable. So for three years the minister sits on his hands while his colleague, Mr Gormley, fully enforces EU laws on protecting habitats by making it unlawful for turf cutters to cut their turf on their own land.
This is a perfect synopsis of Green policy. They don't get the big, medium or small picture. They don't understand basic ideology and policy changes that deal with big issues and conveniently ignore small ones (like small time turf cutting and use of commercial vehicles).
They are the worst, hypocritical, Neanderthal, moronic policy makers in the history of this State, because unlike FF who enact policies to make FF look good whilst lining the pockets of themselves and their friends, they enact policies or make statements that they firmly believe in, without actually thinking them through.
Please ensure the extinction of this species at the next election.....
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Not buying the Sindo anymore
In the end it was an easy decision to make, helped in no small part by having access to the Sunday Business Post last weekend, the comparison was inevitable. We do love reading our Sunday newspapers and the kids are trained to tip-toe around us in the morning while we digest the news. Funnily enough, if you asked us on Monday what we actually read, it's unlikely we'd be able to tell you anything and any great detail.
The fact of the matter is the Sunday Independent (Sindo), is now only successful because it has a high readership. The page after page of adverts for multiples proves this, the money follows the readership figures, and that's all what it's about.
The sad demise of Alan Ruddock certainly doesn't help in terms of stories or content. The big beast is now confused, it knows it has to reflect the mass of readers who can't stand the government or its policies and therefore promotes the collective outrage, because it has to remain popular. And yet it still wants to remain truthful to its FF leanings, and therefore continues to use patriots like Larkin and O'Dea to push a friendly sanctuary all hoping for a return to favourable opinion polls, where it can then go back to its normal full-on support.
We don't need this as a country, in fact, the Sindo is a direct reflection of our country and its politics. Too big to fail? That's the Sindo. Lazy dogma and ideas thrown in with no great attention to detail or consequences? That's the Sindo. Relying on a rump of support in its rural strongholds? That's the Sindo. Like FF, the Sindo doesn't understand the necessity for statesmen rather than politicians, it is a rural backwater of gombeen relationships sprinkled with Benny-Hill moments to try and keep its readership numbers maximised.
Will people cop-on and consign this rag to the dustbin? Sadly, unlikely to happen in my time, no matter how long that might be. But even the longest journey has to start with the first step, and in this instance, I'm taking mine next Sunday.....
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
John Gormley, Grandmaster Quisling and Hypocrite
Minister Gormley is in the process of putting the finishing touches to banning Stag Hunting in Ireland, a 'vital' component for the current program for government. Of course, this ban will not stop stag hunting in Ireland, because deer will still be shot and killed both legally in terms of culling numbers, and illegally for those hunting trophies.
The ban in stag hunting will affect the only stag hunting club in the Republic, the Ward Union Hunt. The WUH maintains a 150 strong Red Deer herd in Co Meath. The hunt, of which there are several a year, takes place by segregating a healthy adult deer from the herd, transporting it to a set location, and then chasing it down using hounds with the intention of capturing it again. Is this cruel? Absolutely. And as we have seen, there have been incidents of stags having to be put down or entering into public or private lands and giving rise to potential injury or death.
However, isn't it astonishing that the minister is taking such an enthusiastic zeal in dealing with what is after all, an anachronistic event involving a bunch of would-be-toffs that has absolutely no abiding consequence on the deer population in Ireland? Mr Gormley has spent well over a €1,000,000 of taxpayers money in an attempt to shut down this hunt, including losing €300,000 alone in one failed court case. Would this money not be better spent in doing something constructive about the deer population in Ireland?
Nobody is in a position to give a definitive answer on what the deer population in Ireland is. One hunter of national prominence has indicated that the deer population in Ireland may well be between 30 and 40 times its sustainable level. The difficulty in verifying this is because the minister, who is now three years in office, has failed to do the one basic action everyone has been asking for - a national deer census. He's perfectly happy to count frogs thanks to EU directives, but when it comes to compiling basic facts that you can draw conclusions from, he's happier spending money off on wild legal goose chases.
Let's be clear on this, even the most ardent deer lover is prepared to admit that the deer population is out of control over large portions of Ireland, a particularly bad spot being the Dublin and Wicklow Mountains. The NPWS organises hunting (culls) sanctioned and increased by the minister since he has been in office to try and control the population, but with no census, we have no way of establishing if this is having the desired effect. Even worse, the illegal hunting of deer is on a scale equivalent and even surpassing the legal activity. It's quite lucrative in that hunters both in Ireland and abroad will pay substantial sums of money to be given the opportunity to hunt deer. Of course, the problem with this is that they are mostly interested in hunting stags because they are trophy hunting, and this has little lasting effect on controlling deer numbers.
In the meantime, our rampaging deer population (one assumes as we have no census) are doing millions of Euros worth of damage to crops and indigenous flora, which has a knock on effect on native fauna. You may wonder why there is little native hardwood forestry in Ireland? Well the reason is that the little blighters will chew and strip every sapling they can get their teeth and tongues into by preference to anything else, and ring-fencing the trees is too commercially expensive in spite of the grants made available. So the deer quite happily reside in their Sitka Spruce mono-cultural night residences only to forage down from the mountains where and when they want.
This is the sheer hypocrisy of John Gormley, he wastes hundreds of thousands of Euros tackling the irrelevancy of the WUH to appease the anti-hunting element in the Green Party, thus making it a Green central plank on the PfG, but completely fails to deal with the bigger, more overriding issue of deer control. A competent minister would start the ball rolling with a deer census, then get all the stakeholders together and drum up a steering group, with the express aim of coordinating the conservation, maintenance and control of the national deer herd for betterment of one and all. The minister's hypocrisy is helpful to no-one, save his own ego and stupidity.
In the meantime, I note Mr. Gormley in his best quisling role taking on a photo shoot of the first Red Kites born in this country for over 200 years. The minister has been in charge for three years, and yet he has done nothing to protect the attempts to reintroduce Red Kites, Golden and Sea Eagles in this country from rampant poisoning. Indeed, this is the worst year on record, happening directly on his watch. No new legislation, no random searches of farms, no random searches of suspect areas identified from tracking tags, no arrests, no prosecutions. NO. NOTHING.
This is a minister of self-serving drivel, a man of inaction, worse, a man whose few actions are counter-productive and inconsequential, because his limitations in ability and aptitude blinker him from realising simple, basic, tasks and legislation. He is a failure in common sense, a failure as a representative of the Green Party, and the sooner the country is rid of this hypocritical quisling, the better.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Theory-crafting on the conspiracy behind the Bank Guarantee Scheme
Lately I've been mulling over the whole bank guarantee scheme and the subsequent nationalisation of Anglo Irish Bank. There's a lot about it which doesn't sound or feel right, so in order to progress this along, I'm going to talk about the elements involved and as a consequence, a theory that I wish to proffer for your entertainment.
Let's start with some assumptions.
1. We know that in 2008 INBS bonds were rated just one level above junk status. We know that numerous issues involving the running of the bank had been raised at AGM level and in all the national media. We know that Brian Cowen had gone out of his way to facilitate INBS to be demutualised. In short, this was a financial organisation that was allowed to do whatever it felt appropriate without any objectivity from the financial regulator or the Central Bank, let alone the Minister of Finance.
2. We know that in 2008 Anglo-Irish was in huge trouble. The bond markets had given their verdict during Drumm's attempts to raise more capital in his US roadshow in the summer of 2008; there were no takers. Of all the indigenous financial institutions on ISEQ, Anglo were looked upon as being the weakest link, and by targeting the bank, the markets were effecting all said institutions.
3. Now we move to the night of the 29th of September 2008. Apparently no record or minutes were ever taken to explain or substantiate what happened that night. But it does appear, at least from my perspective, that a decision was already place before that fateful night. We know that the various executives and chairmen of BoI and AIB were entertained, albeit briefly, before they were informed of the governments decision. But it is quite clear, that nothing that the banks representatives said or did, had any bearing on the final decision to guarantee all the liabilities of all the indigenous lending institutions.
4. It's interesting that the bank guarantee scheme is unique to Ireland. Other countries nationalised or part-nationalised their financial institutions who were suffering difficulties. Most countries offered some form of guarantee on deposits. But nobody went to the altar of cojones on the block like we did.The reactions to the newly announced scheme varied from hostile (the UK), to perplexed and surprised (the ECB) to wholehearted support (the US and financial markets).
5. It is possible to believe that Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan were unaware of the seriousness of the banks financial position in September 2008. Certainly there can be no doubt that the banks had systemically lied about their capitalisation to all and sundry. What's not possible to believe however, is that in the four months from guarantee to nationalisation for Anglo Irish, that the Finance minister (presumably having eventually read the auditors reports) considered the institution to be of systemic economic importance to the State.
6. The guarantee scheme spawned the nationalisation of Anglo and the subsequent strain on our finances in conjunction with the recapitalisation of INBS. Everyone agrees that the other financial institutions are systemic to our economy and worth saving, regardless of the price. Only the government seems to think the same applies to Anglo and INBS. Under the terms of the scheme we are stuck to this course of action until Sept 2010 when a new guarantee scheme will be put in place. We are told that the new scheme will be a watered down version, but little detail has been discussed. Is there an implicit threat that the government will rescind its guarantee to bondholders in Anglo and INBS and use that to wind down the banks and give only a percentage back to the bondholders? No one can say, but the threat, if real, remains.
7. In the meantime, our borrowings are forecast to explode over the next few years as we play catch-up with Greece. Now there is no comparison between the two countries if we are to be honest. We don't have to borrow €50b or so for each of the next three years. We haven't systemically lied about our financial situation. We are in the middle of an approved austerity program organised to get our deficit under some control. And yet, don't you find that we get an enormous amount of credit from the international financial community? That we are held as some international paragon in comparison to the pariah state that is Greece. The markets aren't stupid, they know only too well how bad the situation is, and will be, in Ireland, much as they knew how bad things were in INBS and Anglo.
8. Which brings us to the government bond auctions by the NTMA. They are always, repeat always, a stunning success. Always oversubscribed, always 100% facilitated, a great pat on the back for the financial and economic strategies of this government.
9. So this brings me to my thesis. It is my belief and opinion that prior to Sept 2008, we have done a deal with the international markets. From a conspiracy perspective you can argue that this was facilitated by the Bilderberg Group, or the Wandering Jew, or Jesse Ventura. It doesn't really matter. What we have here is the biggest quid pro quo in Irish financial history. In this we, the people, as represented by B&B, are guaranteeing all the liabilities of the banks, and specifically, all the international bondholders. In return for having all their bonds guaranteed by the state, these same institutions are beholden to make encouraging noises about our fiscal strategy and of course, buy up our auctions of government bonds.
10. So far this dance of financial symbiosis has been adhered to by both parties. The government, because of the 2 year duration of the guarantee scheme, and the bondholders/investors because of the uncertainty of what happens when the guarantee is up.
Let's start with some assumptions.
1. We know that in 2008 INBS bonds were rated just one level above junk status. We know that numerous issues involving the running of the bank had been raised at AGM level and in all the national media. We know that Brian Cowen had gone out of his way to facilitate INBS to be demutualised. In short, this was a financial organisation that was allowed to do whatever it felt appropriate without any objectivity from the financial regulator or the Central Bank, let alone the Minister of Finance.
2. We know that in 2008 Anglo-Irish was in huge trouble. The bond markets had given their verdict during Drumm's attempts to raise more capital in his US roadshow in the summer of 2008; there were no takers. Of all the indigenous financial institutions on ISEQ, Anglo were looked upon as being the weakest link, and by targeting the bank, the markets were effecting all said institutions.
3. Now we move to the night of the 29th of September 2008. Apparently no record or minutes were ever taken to explain or substantiate what happened that night. But it does appear, at least from my perspective, that a decision was already place before that fateful night. We know that the various executives and chairmen of BoI and AIB were entertained, albeit briefly, before they were informed of the governments decision. But it is quite clear, that nothing that the banks representatives said or did, had any bearing on the final decision to guarantee all the liabilities of all the indigenous lending institutions.
4. It's interesting that the bank guarantee scheme is unique to Ireland. Other countries nationalised or part-nationalised their financial institutions who were suffering difficulties. Most countries offered some form of guarantee on deposits. But nobody went to the altar of cojones on the block like we did.The reactions to the newly announced scheme varied from hostile (the UK), to perplexed and surprised (the ECB) to wholehearted support (the US and financial markets).
5. It is possible to believe that Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan were unaware of the seriousness of the banks financial position in September 2008. Certainly there can be no doubt that the banks had systemically lied about their capitalisation to all and sundry. What's not possible to believe however, is that in the four months from guarantee to nationalisation for Anglo Irish, that the Finance minister (presumably having eventually read the auditors reports) considered the institution to be of systemic economic importance to the State.
6. The guarantee scheme spawned the nationalisation of Anglo and the subsequent strain on our finances in conjunction with the recapitalisation of INBS. Everyone agrees that the other financial institutions are systemic to our economy and worth saving, regardless of the price. Only the government seems to think the same applies to Anglo and INBS. Under the terms of the scheme we are stuck to this course of action until Sept 2010 when a new guarantee scheme will be put in place. We are told that the new scheme will be a watered down version, but little detail has been discussed. Is there an implicit threat that the government will rescind its guarantee to bondholders in Anglo and INBS and use that to wind down the banks and give only a percentage back to the bondholders? No one can say, but the threat, if real, remains.
7. In the meantime, our borrowings are forecast to explode over the next few years as we play catch-up with Greece. Now there is no comparison between the two countries if we are to be honest. We don't have to borrow €50b or so for each of the next three years. We haven't systemically lied about our financial situation. We are in the middle of an approved austerity program organised to get our deficit under some control. And yet, don't you find that we get an enormous amount of credit from the international financial community? That we are held as some international paragon in comparison to the pariah state that is Greece. The markets aren't stupid, they know only too well how bad the situation is, and will be, in Ireland, much as they knew how bad things were in INBS and Anglo.
8. Which brings us to the government bond auctions by the NTMA. They are always, repeat always, a stunning success. Always oversubscribed, always 100% facilitated, a great pat on the back for the financial and economic strategies of this government.
9. So this brings me to my thesis. It is my belief and opinion that prior to Sept 2008, we have done a deal with the international markets. From a conspiracy perspective you can argue that this was facilitated by the Bilderberg Group, or the Wandering Jew, or Jesse Ventura. It doesn't really matter. What we have here is the biggest quid pro quo in Irish financial history. In this we, the people, as represented by B&B, are guaranteeing all the liabilities of the banks, and specifically, all the international bondholders. In return for having all their bonds guaranteed by the state, these same institutions are beholden to make encouraging noises about our fiscal strategy and of course, buy up our auctions of government bonds.
10. So far this dance of financial symbiosis has been adhered to by both parties. The government, because of the 2 year duration of the guarantee scheme, and the bondholders/investors because of the uncertainty of what happens when the guarantee is up.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
The Real Politik behind Quinn Group
Anglo are proposing to pay off the bondholders in QI €550m to ensure that QI stays in the group. The alternative is that QI gets sold for a fire sale price with Anglo last in the queue to get any financial return. That leaves Quinn Group, less the cash cow, owing Anglo €2.8b + whatever has still to be paid to the other banks.
Quinn Group is now insolvent and the carcase gets stripped down and sold for more fire sale prices to the other banks and finally, Anglo get to pick over what's left. Net return on their €2.8b, not an awful lot. In addition we have the politically unpalatable scenario of the Quinn Group collapsing with a large amount of job losses, companies being shut down and the finger of blame being placed on the government.
The alternative that Anglo are proposing is that for another 25% worth of debt in the company (€550m for the bondholders and €150m equity for QI), and bringing the net amount owed to Anglo to €3.5b, they get a controlling interest in the entire group. Sean Quinn remains as chairman, but realistically Anglo will be putting in their own management team.
The thinking behind this means that Anglo are now in a position to sell off the components of Quinn at the most suitable time, using the cash cow of QI to support the areas of the business that aren't functioning. In my viewpoint, this increases their chances of making some money back, and is a better option than the current one, sitting on the sidelines waiting for the vultures to finish off Quinn.
There's also the political aspect behind this. For the current government, failing to save Quinn Group is likely to ferment dissension in their backbenchers, increasing the likelihood of a GE being called at the worst possible time for the governmental parties. It's also highly that the write-off in the debts to Anglo may finally kill off the bank and it will be run down.
I really wouldn't like to be the regulator now, the pressure must be enormous coming from all the interested parties. I do think the opposition should be seen getting involved in what is a critical moment for the State, but they are as hamstrung as the government are in terms of the forthcoming election, and can't be seen to doing anything that will effect their own popularity.
For the record, I do not support the government and have a reputation on the for being ABFF, nonetheless, that doesn't mean that I conveniently ignore the political and financial realism of the current situation.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
J'accuse - Brian Lenihan
On the 29th of September 2008, Brian Lenihan and Brian Cowen met with Brian Goggin and Richard Burrows of BoI and Dermot Gleeson and Eugene Sheehy of AIB. During this meeting, supported by officials from the Finance Ministry, Lenihan put forward his proposals for the bank guarantee scheme, a scheme that would guarantee all the liabilities in the banks, including the bonds of all the Irish banks.
In January 15th, Brian Lenihan announced that Anglo-Irish Banks was of systemic importance to Ireland and nationalised it. There was no choice in doing this, because we as the taxpayer, would have had to reimburse the vast majority of liabilities in the bank owing to that guarantee.
Today, Lenihan has announced that the expected bill for this nationalisation is a minimum of €22b. There can be no other conclusion that the decision to guarantee the liabilities in Anglo-Irish was the worst financial decision ever made in the (short) history of our country, likely never to be matched, and certainly never surpassed.
I believe Brian Lenihan to be an honourable man, I believe that when he made the statement extolling the virtues and importance of Anglo Irish, he did so not as a fabrication or obsfucation, but because he was merely incompetent and negligent.
Accordingly, and as a citizen of this State, because of this gross negligence and incompetence, I call on him to resign his position forthwith, and Brian Cowen, who backed his judgement and decisions, to allow this state and its citizens to pass judgement in a general election. __________________
In January 15th, Brian Lenihan announced that Anglo-Irish Banks was of systemic importance to Ireland and nationalised it. There was no choice in doing this, because we as the taxpayer, would have had to reimburse the vast majority of liabilities in the bank owing to that guarantee.
Today, Lenihan has announced that the expected bill for this nationalisation is a minimum of €22b. There can be no other conclusion that the decision to guarantee the liabilities in Anglo-Irish was the worst financial decision ever made in the (short) history of our country, likely never to be matched, and certainly never surpassed.
I believe Brian Lenihan to be an honourable man, I believe that when he made the statement extolling the virtues and importance of Anglo Irish, he did so not as a fabrication or obsfucation, but because he was merely incompetent and negligent.
Accordingly, and as a citizen of this State, because of this gross negligence and incompetence, I call on him to resign his position forthwith, and Brian Cowen, who backed his judgement and decisions, to allow this state and its citizens to pass judgement in a general election. __________________
Monday, March 15, 2010
Frank Fahey sees Shell to the sea shore
Well, we started off with The Atlantic Dawn controvosy where our Frank generously provided temporary licences to this http://weblog.greenpeace.org/oceandefenders/archive/2006/04/mauritania_ship_from_hell.html until it could swap with its sister ship the Veronica. Next we moved on to the the Lost at Sea saga, where the bold Frank patently favoured his constituents over other deserving causes, much to the annoyance of his department and the then attorney general. This process is now causing a rift between the government parties and the Ombudsman, with good old Danny Boyle sticking his moral oar into the thick of things again.
But, we're not finished yet. This new post is going to focus on yet another example of why Mr. Fahey is not fit for any office. It is my contention that our Frank is in the middle of a rehabilitation process with Brian Cowen. Regularly sent out to bat for NAMA, Frank '40 gaffs' Fahey http://www.businessandfinance.ie/blog_post.jsp?blogID=15&a=2653 is now embroiled in a stand-off between the government parties and the Ombudsman. Why on earth are FF and the Greens preventing the Ombudsman from getting a fair hearing and closing ranks around Fahey, particularly when you consider that Sargent and Fahey have had a hate/hate relationship over the years? Let's ramp up the pressure still further and examine another classic example of how we associate the word 'stroke' with Frank Fahey.
As with all stories, it's important to start at the beginning. The Corrib Gas Field was discovered in 1996, our first commercial gas discovery since the Kinsale Field in 1973. For a resource free country like ourselves, a very important find. The licence for the exploration of the field was granted in 1993, over a period of 11 years. The licence was given to Enterprise Oil and its partners. After the Shell bought out Enterprise Oil in 2002, the breakdown of the consortium is as follows; Shell (operator) (45%), Statoil (36,5%) and Marathon (now Vermilion) (18,5%).
The timing of this is important, because in 1975, Labour minister Justin Keating gave the state a 50% stake plus royalties of 6 to 7% in any commercial find. In 1985, Ray Burke, the corrupt FF minister, abandoned the stake and the royalties. In 1992, Bertie Ahern, the then finance minister, now currently under scrutiny with the Mahon Tribunal, reduced the tax rate applicable to the oil companies by 25% under intense lobbying from the oil companies. Not only that, but the companies were allowed to deduct tax against commercial costs over the previous 25 years.
In fairness to Ahern and Burke, the fact is that we are not a resource rich country, and therefore companies need to be given as many incentives as possible. Notwithstanding that, we have to deal with the facts that the Corrib Gas Field presents us with, and that is its current worth is anywhere between €9.5b and €22b, and our tax take from the profits is the lowest in any equivalent country in the world, money that we desperately require in our current extremis.
So back to 1996, and the consortium are sitting pretty with their multi-billion Euro and practically tax-free find, but with the rather major issue on how they were going to connect their find to the Bord Gáis network on the mainland. In order to connect to the network, the gas needs to be refined first. This can either be done offshore or onshore. Offshore is certainly rather expensive, millions of Euro more expensive than refining onshore.
Lucky for the consortium that they found a willing collaborator in Frank Fahey. As minster of state for the marine and natural resources, he was heavily lobbied by Enterprise Oil executive, John McGoldrick, resulting in the following concessions.
1. He introduced orders allowing acquisition of lands for the gas pipeline.
2. He granted the foreshore license allowing the consortium to land the pipeline.
3. He oversaw the sale of 400 acres of land from Coillte to the consortium to allow the construction of the refinery.
The acquisition of lands: For the first time in the history of this state, Compulsory Acquisition Orders were being used as a direct benefit to a company or conglomerate, rather than the State itself.
The foreshore license: This was granted in 2002 just before the General Election. It enabled the pipeline to be built within 70m of the inhabitants houses.
The Coillte sell-off: Here is Coillte's perspective on land sales:
Nothing there to indicate sales to international conglomerates for massive refining projects.
All of which results in the delay of the pipeline and the introduction of Corrib Gas into the Irish network. It has also resulted in the cost to the State of millions of Euro in maintaining the Gardaà presence in Bellanaboy, the jailing of local inhabitants (justified or not), and negative headlines all over the world.
The man responsible for all this is Frank Fahey. Mr Fahey could easily have insisted on Shell refining the gas at sea, an option more expensive, but without all the added controversy. Instead Mr Fahey actively went out of his way to aid and assist Shell and its other consortium partners for no discernible reason whatsoever.
Mr Fahey is not interested in local people (not unless they are his constituents of course), he is not interested in the environment (hence Trevor Sargent's previous savaging of him), he is only interested in an obscure patronage that no one can define in any reasonable terminology.
This is the land of politicians, and Frank Fahey is at the bottom of them.
But, we're not finished yet. This new post is going to focus on yet another example of why Mr. Fahey is not fit for any office. It is my contention that our Frank is in the middle of a rehabilitation process with Brian Cowen. Regularly sent out to bat for NAMA, Frank '40 gaffs' Fahey http://www.businessandfinance.ie/blog_post.jsp?blogID=15&a=2653 is now embroiled in a stand-off between the government parties and the Ombudsman. Why on earth are FF and the Greens preventing the Ombudsman from getting a fair hearing and closing ranks around Fahey, particularly when you consider that Sargent and Fahey have had a hate/hate relationship over the years? Let's ramp up the pressure still further and examine another classic example of how we associate the word 'stroke' with Frank Fahey.
As with all stories, it's important to start at the beginning. The Corrib Gas Field was discovered in 1996, our first commercial gas discovery since the Kinsale Field in 1973. For a resource free country like ourselves, a very important find. The licence for the exploration of the field was granted in 1993, over a period of 11 years. The licence was given to Enterprise Oil and its partners. After the Shell bought out Enterprise Oil in 2002, the breakdown of the consortium is as follows; Shell (operator) (45%), Statoil (36,5%) and Marathon (now Vermilion) (18,5%).
The timing of this is important, because in 1975, Labour minister Justin Keating gave the state a 50% stake plus royalties of 6 to 7% in any commercial find. In 1985, Ray Burke, the corrupt FF minister, abandoned the stake and the royalties. In 1992, Bertie Ahern, the then finance minister, now currently under scrutiny with the Mahon Tribunal, reduced the tax rate applicable to the oil companies by 25% under intense lobbying from the oil companies. Not only that, but the companies were allowed to deduct tax against commercial costs over the previous 25 years.
In fairness to Ahern and Burke, the fact is that we are not a resource rich country, and therefore companies need to be given as many incentives as possible. Notwithstanding that, we have to deal with the facts that the Corrib Gas Field presents us with, and that is its current worth is anywhere between €9.5b and €22b, and our tax take from the profits is the lowest in any equivalent country in the world, money that we desperately require in our current extremis.
So back to 1996, and the consortium are sitting pretty with their multi-billion Euro and practically tax-free find, but with the rather major issue on how they were going to connect their find to the Bord Gáis network on the mainland. In order to connect to the network, the gas needs to be refined first. This can either be done offshore or onshore. Offshore is certainly rather expensive, millions of Euro more expensive than refining onshore.
Lucky for the consortium that they found a willing collaborator in Frank Fahey. As minster of state for the marine and natural resources, he was heavily lobbied by Enterprise Oil executive, John McGoldrick, resulting in the following concessions.
1. He introduced orders allowing acquisition of lands for the gas pipeline.
2. He granted the foreshore license allowing the consortium to land the pipeline.
3. He oversaw the sale of 400 acres of land from Coillte to the consortium to allow the construction of the refinery.
The acquisition of lands: For the first time in the history of this state, Compulsory Acquisition Orders were being used as a direct benefit to a company or conglomerate, rather than the State itself.
The foreshore license: This was granted in 2002 just before the General Election. It enabled the pipeline to be built within 70m of the inhabitants houses.
The Coillte sell-off: Here is Coillte's perspective on land sales:
Coillte owns an estate of 445,421 hectares, which is distributed widely around the country. Coillte's practice is to sell, lease or develop a limited area of non-strategic land, for purposes other than forestry. Most sales are made in response to local demand and typically comprise house sites, isolated dwelling houses, sections of recently acquired farms, small outlying forest properties and gravel pits. [B]Land may also be sold to local authorities for infrastructure projects and for industrial or tourism projects[/B]. Properties sold are those considered not to be of strategic importance to the company's forest business, and properties whose sale would not adversely impact on plans for future management of forests and where value exceeds forest value. A Signing Off Committee within Coillte considers all land sales, with larger sales requiring approval from Coillte's Board of Directors.
Nothing there to indicate sales to international conglomerates for massive refining projects.
In 2009, An Bord Pleanala objected to the current location of the pipeline as reported in the Irish Times:
Bord Pleanála says that up to half of the proposed nine kilometre onshore route for the Corrib gas pipeline is "unacceptable" on safety grounds, due to proximity to housing in Rossport and Glengad.
The board has suggested that Shell E&P Ireland and its Corrib gas partners explore another route, up the Sruwaddacon estuary, and has given the company three months to come back with detailed information on the route, design and safety of the high pressure pipe.
In a four page letter issued today, the board says that the current application "does not present a complete, transparent and adequate demonstration" that the high pressure pipeline "does not pose an unacceptable risk to the public.
It also says that the impact of construction on a designated rural area in Rossport would "seriously injure residential amenities" and the development potential of lands there. It notes that part of the pipeline route onshore was omitted from the application.
Shell E&P Ireland has until February 5th, 2010 to respond to a series of points raised by the board, which represents a significant setback for the project's time schedule.
All of which results in the delay of the pipeline and the introduction of Corrib Gas into the Irish network. It has also resulted in the cost to the State of millions of Euro in maintaining the Gardaà presence in Bellanaboy, the jailing of local inhabitants (justified or not), and negative headlines all over the world.
The man responsible for all this is Frank Fahey. Mr Fahey could easily have insisted on Shell refining the gas at sea, an option more expensive, but without all the added controversy. Instead Mr Fahey actively went out of his way to aid and assist Shell and its other consortium partners for no discernible reason whatsoever.
Mr Fahey is not interested in local people (not unless they are his constituents of course), he is not interested in the environment (hence Trevor Sargent's previous savaging of him), he is only interested in an obscure patronage that no one can define in any reasonable terminology.
Mikhail Gorbachev -- "What is the difference between a statesman and a politician?... A statesman does what he believes is best for his country."
This is the land of politicians, and Frank Fahey is at the bottom of them.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
AIB give two fingers to common sense....
Colm O'Doherty, the AIB CE) (between the lines) and Richard Bruton (in screaming headlines) were advocating the selling off of AIB's performing assets; namely their operating interests in Poland, the UK and the US.
This is a fire sale strategy to raise as much capital as possible to reduce the stake the State has to take in AIB. It's pretty much the same a bank forcing you to sell off your house right now so you can pay back some or all of your mortgage.
It's also a complete contradiction to the bank indicating that it will raise interest and mortgage rates to customers to become profitable again, whilst simultaneously selling off their most profitable assets.
Will someone please stop this stupidity and put matchsticks into Bruton's eyes.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Trevor Sargent - end of the government? maybe not.....
So here we are in full flow on politics.ie......
http://www.politics.ie/green-party/124396-trevor-sargent-hot-water-over-headed-notepaper-letter-garda.html
Mixed feelings here. As a previous lifelong Green supporter I've never forgiven him for going into government with FF even if he did the 'honourable' thing in resigning as leader. You see, most of the Green candates were elected on transfers from FG, Labour, SF and independent voters, if we'd seriously thought for a minute that the Greens would support the mercenaries of corruption, none of them would have been elected.
I can't help but feel however, that Sargent's attempt to influence the prosecution of the individual involved was well intentioned, out of what he and I would perceive as being a social injustice. He can't argue that he had no choice but to resign, but I actually sympathise with his position and I'm sorry that it has come to this.
How has it come to this?
The toxic horror that is the FF party is making a mockery of the Greens and everything they have previously stood for. Any Green who honestly thinks that the leaking of the letters to The Herald (of all papers - laughable) is a pure coincidence only needs to read the history books on previous FF coalitions.
This isn't funny, it's not sad, it's not a moral history lesson, it's not a parable for our children........it's a cruel, sick parody of a party that used to have a meaning and a purpose.
Of course, the main interest in this is who leaked the letters to the Evening Herald. As usual, the knee-jerk reaction was that it sounded exactly like a FF stunt.
The individual involved in the leak knows that their career, whatever their profession, is finished if their identity becomes known. Why therefore, take such a risk, particularly as the you can be certain that senior GardaÃ, stung by O'Dea's accusation, will very much want to get to the bottom of this and proceed with a prosecution if applicable.
Said individual will know that as long as his identity remains intact, the suspicion of any rational person will assume that they are connected with FF.
Releasing the letters to the Evening Herald is bizarre. This would indicate that the paper was chosen because the indvidual has an acquaintance in the paper or has had some previous dealings with individual(s) in that rag.
Conclusion therefore: individual involved, angered by what had happened to O'Dea and having access to the letters - possibly from some months ago - uses the easiest and most direct option to release them.
I believe that the individual will be connected loosely to FF, I believe their identity will be known within the week, and happily, I believe the government will fall as a consequence.
O'Dea was grotesque in his actions
It's unbelievable that Sargent was be so foolish as to write those letters
The connection with the leaker will be bizarre
And the fall out for both parties will be unprecedented
Until one of the posters, lostexpectation, came up with a very plausible explanation:
Now this makes sense, it's also possible that someone with access to the letters (or copies of them) related to the constituent might have passed them on to the GardaÃ. And the reasoning behind accepting this explanation goes as follows:
1. It ties in with the time line of the case
2. It explains why it was released to the Evening Herald
3. It gets around the issue as to why someone in FF would leak the letters cognisant of the allegations that would arise
4. It explains why Cowen would appear confident enough to deny the allegations
So at the moment, while I want it to be FF behind the leak or more likely someone loosely connected to FF, I'm afraid the probability is somewhat more mundane.
http://www.politics.ie/green-party/124396-trevor-sargent-hot-water-over-headed-notepaper-letter-garda.html
Mixed feelings here. As a previous lifelong Green supporter I've never forgiven him for going into government with FF even if he did the 'honourable' thing in resigning as leader. You see, most of the Green candates were elected on transfers from FG, Labour, SF and independent voters, if we'd seriously thought for a minute that the Greens would support the mercenaries of corruption, none of them would have been elected.
I can't help but feel however, that Sargent's attempt to influence the prosecution of the individual involved was well intentioned, out of what he and I would perceive as being a social injustice. He can't argue that he had no choice but to resign, but I actually sympathise with his position and I'm sorry that it has come to this.
How has it come to this?
The toxic horror that is the FF party is making a mockery of the Greens and everything they have previously stood for. Any Green who honestly thinks that the leaking of the letters to The Herald (of all papers - laughable) is a pure coincidence only needs to read the history books on previous FF coalitions.
This isn't funny, it's not sad, it's not a moral history lesson, it's not a parable for our children........it's a cruel, sick parody of a party that used to have a meaning and a purpose.
Of course, the main interest in this is who leaked the letters to the Evening Herald. As usual, the knee-jerk reaction was that it sounded exactly like a FF stunt.
The individual involved in the leak knows that their career, whatever their profession, is finished if their identity becomes known. Why therefore, take such a risk, particularly as the you can be certain that senior GardaÃ, stung by O'Dea's accusation, will very much want to get to the bottom of this and proceed with a prosecution if applicable.
Said individual will know that as long as his identity remains intact, the suspicion of any rational person will assume that they are connected with FF.
Releasing the letters to the Evening Herald is bizarre. This would indicate that the paper was chosen because the indvidual has an acquaintance in the paper or has had some previous dealings with individual(s) in that rag.
Conclusion therefore: individual involved, angered by what had happened to O'Dea and having access to the letters - possibly from some months ago - uses the easiest and most direct option to release them.
I believe that the individual will be connected loosely to FF, I believe their identity will be known within the week, and happily, I believe the government will fall as a consequence.
O'Dea was grotesque in his actions
It's unbelievable that Sargent was be so foolish as to write those letters
The connection with the leaker will be bizarre
And the fall out for both parties will be unprecedented
Until one of the posters, lostexpectation, came up with a very plausible explanation:
could the journalist not have gotten the letter from the guy trevor tried to help, he obviously felt hard done by and had been trying to raise the matter anywhere he could, think, "contentiousness neighbour prosecuted after suffering assault!!", "you can't reprimand kids because you're afraid of the parents" but then the journalist saw another story and waiting till the case was over last week and went with the sargeant angle
Now this makes sense, it's also possible that someone with access to the letters (or copies of them) related to the constituent might have passed them on to the GardaÃ. And the reasoning behind accepting this explanation goes as follows:
1. It ties in with the time line of the case
2. It explains why it was released to the Evening Herald
3. It gets around the issue as to why someone in FF would leak the letters cognisant of the allegations that would arise
4. It explains why Cowen would appear confident enough to deny the allegations
So at the moment, while I want it to be FF behind the leak or more likely someone loosely connected to FF, I'm afraid the probability is somewhat more mundane.
Monday, February 8, 2010
On George Lee resigning...
I'm sorry, but if you are elected to represent your constituency as best you can and you feel like you are not making the difference in your party, then the onus is either to change that, or leave the party. Lee here shows a knee-jerk reaction that is self-serving at its worst. If he really wanted to make a difference he could have resigned from FG and represented his constituency as an independent, thus having the same impact on FG as his current resignation, but with the benefits of maintaining his reputation and seat.
Next, this represents all you need to know about the current leadership in FG. Lee would have made a difference to the party is he had been given a prominent role, even if that role was token, as long as it kept him in the media spotlight. This is where his skills are, and the onus was on Kenny to provide him with this role and no one else.
Worst, this is a major boost to FF and the Greens, and will build on to their existing recovery in the opinion polls.
All-in-all, shame on Lee and Kenny for failing to do the maths and keep the pressure on the government, but above all, failing to represent the people that vote for them.
I'll remember this in the by-election.
Next, this represents all you need to know about the current leadership in FG. Lee would have made a difference to the party is he had been given a prominent role, even if that role was token, as long as it kept him in the media spotlight. This is where his skills are, and the onus was on Kenny to provide him with this role and no one else.
Worst, this is a major boost to FF and the Greens, and will build on to their existing recovery in the opinion polls.
All-in-all, shame on Lee and Kenny for failing to do the maths and keep the pressure on the government, but above all, failing to represent the people that vote for them.
I'll remember this in the by-election.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Frank Fahy is Lost at Sea
What's it all about? Well, in the year 2000, Frank Fahy, TD, landlord and property magnet, brought about a very short term compensation vehicle known as 'The Lost at Sea Scheme'. It functioned from June 2001 to 31st December 2001. The purpose of the scheme was to offer compensation in respect to any vessels lost at sea from 1980 to 1990 before the fishing boat registry came into being.
Specifically, this compensation was to be given to fishing families unable, for financial or related reasons, to continue with their tradition.
Seems reasonable? Hmm. There were 67 applicants for compensation, and only 6 were deemed to qualify for compensation. 2 of these happened to be constituents of Mr Fahy. It then transpires that of the €2.8m compensation paid, 75% of this money went to these same two constituents. Not only that, but Mr Fahy consulted with these two individuals 4 months before the launch of the scheme, and, wrote a letter two months before the scheme ended congratulating these same two constituents about the success of their application.
All of which was unlikely to have gone noticed except that 6 parties then complained to the Ombudsman regarding their lack of success in receiving compensation. 5 of these the Ombudsman did not uphold, but in the case of the sixth, the Byrne family, who lost a father, a brother and two other crew with the loss of the Skifjord in 1981, she agreed that €250,000 worth of compensation because the scheme was fatally flawed.
An interesting transcript of Dáil questions here:
http://www.kildarestreet.com/debate/?id=2009-10-15.343.10
Has Tom Sheahan (FG, Kerry South) saying:
As the Ombudsman has been unable to reach agreement with the Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, she has decided to refer to the Oireachtas, for only the second time since the office was founded in the 1980's.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/0204/1224263735064.html
It can be argued that the Ombudsman's findings are incorrect as the Byrne's processed their claim outside of the terms of conditions of the scheme, but what can't be refuted, is that the scheme itself was fundamentally flawed and designed in part to favour and benefit the then minister's constituents.
Specifically, this compensation was to be given to fishing families unable, for financial or related reasons, to continue with their tradition.
Seems reasonable? Hmm. There were 67 applicants for compensation, and only 6 were deemed to qualify for compensation. 2 of these happened to be constituents of Mr Fahy. It then transpires that of the €2.8m compensation paid, 75% of this money went to these same two constituents. Not only that, but Mr Fahy consulted with these two individuals 4 months before the launch of the scheme, and, wrote a letter two months before the scheme ended congratulating these same two constituents about the success of their application.
All of which was unlikely to have gone noticed except that 6 parties then complained to the Ombudsman regarding their lack of success in receiving compensation. 5 of these the Ombudsman did not uphold, but in the case of the sixth, the Byrne family, who lost a father, a brother and two other crew with the loss of the Skifjord in 1981, she agreed that €250,000 worth of compensation because the scheme was fatally flawed.
The design of the scheme and the manner in which it was advertised were contrary to fair and sound administration and that these shortcomings were factors in the Byrne family not qualifying for assistance under the scheme.http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/1214/breaking49.htm
Weaknesses in the design process included a lack of adequate research of files held within the department regarding vessels lost at sea during the relevant period, lack of documented analysis of the pros and cons of the Scheme’s qualifying criteria and a failure to include provision for the exercise of discretion in the vetting of applications
(Advertising of the scheme) should have been more thorough, comprehensive and targeted ...some prospective applicants were put in a more advantageous position than others as they were written to directly by the department and the minister to inform then about the Scheme when it was launched.
An interesting transcript of Dáil questions here:
http://www.kildarestreet.com/debate/?id=2009-10-15.343.10
Has Tom Sheahan (FG, Kerry South) saying:
It was the way it was worked. Four months before the scheme was launched the then Minister met with the two applicants and told them to apply. The closing date for the scheme was December 2001 yet the Minister wrote to the two applicants in October 2001 and congratulated them. Thereafter, the Attorney General’s advice was that they had to receive this settlement because of the Minister’s letter. This was a con job and a set-up. I ask the Minister of State, Deputy Sargent, while he is present, if he still believes this con job is worthy of a complaint to the Standards in Public Office Commission.
As the Ombudsman has been unable to reach agreement with the Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, she has decided to refer to the Oireachtas, for only the second time since the office was founded in the 1980's.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/0204/1224263735064.html
It can be argued that the Ombudsman's findings are incorrect as the Byrne's processed their claim outside of the terms of conditions of the scheme, but what can't be refuted, is that the scheme itself was fundamentally flawed and designed in part to favour and benefit the then minister's constituents.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
John Gormley and the Poolbeg Incinerator
It was interesting listening to Gormley's interview on RTE just recently. Sean O'Rourke noted that Gormley has a 'no incinerator here' sticker on his home window. 'How can you be so sure' says Gormley. 'Well, do you have one or not?' 'Yes, but interesting to know that' says Gormley obviously horrified that some media people are looking to see what's he stuck on his windows.....
Anyway, Gormley says he is not politically motivated in trying to scrap or reduce the size of the incinerator, which is totally untrue. Actually, and John, you can go after me for this, you're lying. This is completely politically motivated and anybody who thinks otherwise is using complete SPiN.
The really, really funny thing was Gormley complaining that DCC had pushed through the deal before the election, so they could say they were following government policy. That's terrible. That's almost as bad as Dick Roche signing off the papers for the N3 bypass before Gormley could take his ministerial seat.
Also, Gormley was on about the fact that he wants to concentrate on MBT plants (Mechanical Biological Treatment) to handle certain waste materials, and indeed opened one only recently in Navan. Who operates this plant? Why Panda do. Is there a connection? No, other than the fact that Panda are one of the companies that raised the recent successful objection to try and halt the site or reduce its capacity.
This is big business talking here, We've got a battle against the existing waste management companies and a new bully on the block in the shape of Covanta. Then we have the political fallout between DCC and John Gormley. And now we have other government agencies involved like the National Development Finance Agency that agreed that the project was good value for money in 2007 and now the ESRI have made Gormley look like a complete mug.
This all stinks, and I mean that in every phrase of the word.
Anyway, Gormley says he is not politically motivated in trying to scrap or reduce the size of the incinerator, which is totally untrue. Actually, and John, you can go after me for this, you're lying. This is completely politically motivated and anybody who thinks otherwise is using complete SPiN.
The really, really funny thing was Gormley complaining that DCC had pushed through the deal before the election, so they could say they were following government policy. That's terrible. That's almost as bad as Dick Roche signing off the papers for the N3 bypass before Gormley could take his ministerial seat.
Also, Gormley was on about the fact that he wants to concentrate on MBT plants (Mechanical Biological Treatment) to handle certain waste materials, and indeed opened one only recently in Navan. Who operates this plant? Why Panda do. Is there a connection? No, other than the fact that Panda are one of the companies that raised the recent successful objection to try and halt the site or reduce its capacity.
This is big business talking here, We've got a battle against the existing waste management companies and a new bully on the block in the shape of Covanta. Then we have the political fallout between DCC and John Gormley. And now we have other government agencies involved like the National Development Finance Agency that agreed that the project was good value for money in 2007 and now the ESRI have made Gormley look like a complete mug.
This all stinks, and I mean that in every phrase of the word.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Lotto for Haiti
Here's an idea.
How about for the next Lotto (Saturday's), we as a nation give the entire take to the people of Haiti? In addition to all prizes won. Should generate a good few million as I suspect that there will be a bigger contribution than normal.
As people will know that they are giving the money (and potential winnings) to charity, it would be a good test case to see if we are one of the most charitable countries in the world.
This example could serve as a very useful for all countries in the aftermath of a catastrophe.
How about for the next Lotto (Saturday's), we as a nation give the entire take to the people of Haiti? In addition to all prizes won. Should generate a good few million as I suspect that there will be a bigger contribution than normal.
As people will know that they are giving the money (and potential winnings) to charity, it would be a good test case to see if we are one of the most charitable countries in the world.
This example could serve as a very useful for all countries in the aftermath of a catastrophe.
Martin Cullen
I have a very strong disregard of Martin Cullen, at best he a classic example of an underachieving gombeen promoted above his station purely in his ability to garner votes in his own constituency.
He is a perfect example of what is wrong with this country where ability, competence and morals come way down the list in terms of boxes governments tick when they are looking for ministers.
In addition, his comments comparing his treatment to that of a rape victim were crass. I'm not sure if the speech was impromptu or rehearsed. If the latter, then clearly this ties in with my remarks above.
However, I do find myself in agreement that certain sections of the media, in particularly the 'Irish' Mail, were obsessed in their hounding of Cullen with regard to a perceived affair and favouritism shown to Monica Leech. His statement that his children were on the receiving end of bullying and had to move schools has a ring of truth to it.
Regardless of his ineptitude, nobody deserves to have their family subjected to that abuse if the source for which is media driven. He is relatively unique as a FF minister in being the subject of intense media intrusion, resulting in what appeared to be slander and lies. Cullen deserves our ridicule and bile based on his performance as a minister, but no more than that.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Time for Real change Mr. Obama
The premise of this is simple. Obama wants to get out of Iraq and Afghanistan as cleanly as possible, it's unlikely - hopefully - that the US will enter into a major conflict again during his tenure.
If Obama wants to wrest opinion in favour of the US and its foreign policies then I would suggest that they set up a couple of task forces on either side of the world to deal with any potential humanitarian crises. Haiti is comparatively lucky being so close to the US coast, but nonetheless, with so much manpower and logistics consumed in their current conflicts, the resources are just not there to expedite the rescue effort.
The US can use these task forces on a dual mandate of rescue efforts as well as regional stability. Rather than focusing on the regime change aspect and then getting bogged down in impossible democratic agendas, they could have for example, toppled the Taliban in Afghanistan and then left it to the tribal elders to sort things out.
It seems to me, that recently the level and scale of catastrophes in the world is increasing in scale and severity. I am well aware that the UN are supposed to provide the relief effort and logistics to combat disasters, but in reality, not much happens without the support of the US military.
Time for change.
If Obama wants to wrest opinion in favour of the US and its foreign policies then I would suggest that they set up a couple of task forces on either side of the world to deal with any potential humanitarian crises. Haiti is comparatively lucky being so close to the US coast, but nonetheless, with so much manpower and logistics consumed in their current conflicts, the resources are just not there to expedite the rescue effort.
The US can use these task forces on a dual mandate of rescue efforts as well as regional stability. Rather than focusing on the regime change aspect and then getting bogged down in impossible democratic agendas, they could have for example, toppled the Taliban in Afghanistan and then left it to the tribal elders to sort things out.
It seems to me, that recently the level and scale of catastrophes in the world is increasing in scale and severity. I am well aware that the UN are supposed to provide the relief effort and logistics to combat disasters, but in reality, not much happens without the support of the US military.
Time for change.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
I like Jean Byrne - she obviously is looking for a man in her life based on the SPACE 1999 consecutive outfits she's worn last night and tonight. The green one tonight here and apparently the scandalised Mrs. Malbekh informs me the silver last night.
I'm curious, were these part of a buy one, get one free (we usually call these BOGOF), or did she get three of them, and the vampish red is tomorrow night?
Can't wait.
Apologies for this post but 'tis Christmas and I need a distraction from the serious stuff.
http://www.politics.ie/media/121229-jean-byrne-met-eireann-what-colour-next.html
I'm curious, were these part of a buy one, get one free (we usually call these BOGOF), or did she get three of them, and the vampish red is tomorrow night?
Can't wait.
Apologies for this post but 'tis Christmas and I need a distraction from the serious stuff.
http://www.politics.ie/media/121229-jean-byrne-met-eireann-what-colour-next.html
On Bees - this one from P.ie 10/11/09
http://www.politics.ie/environment/118208-bees.html
Some years ago I was on a fruit farm in north county Dublin, which was cultivating strawberry plants out of season in plastic tunnels for the multiples. We were discussing a lot of issues, mostly multiple related, when the talk revolved around the more technical aspects of fruit growing.
It was the first time that I stated to understand the real importance of pollination, because the 'farmer' was using imported bumblebees to propagate his crop. In this particular instance, the advantages were that the bumblebees worked in relatively cold temperatures and operated in twilight hours, both very useful in an Irish climate.
So on a wider level did you know that bees, and honeybees in particular, pollinate the following crops: apples, pears, tangerines, peaches, soybeans, pumpkins, squash, cucumbers, cherries, blueberries, raspberries, blackberries, strawberries, carrots, broccoli, avocados and almonds?
In US terms, this is equivalent to $15b worth of crops. The US, in terms of bees is a basket case. On average 30% of hives have died off over the last three years owing to a variety of reasons, the most serious being Colony Collapse Disorder or CCD.
In CCD, the hive adults just simply vanish leaving the queen and a few hatched young workers. What makes it more unusual is that the hive remains untouched by neighbouring ones, who normally would plunder the honey and resources of hives affected by parasites and diseases.
As the bee genome has been completed, scientists researching the issue have identified differences between healthy and unhealthy colonies. It turns out that most of the various camps were right, although on a limited basis. So in other words the factors involved are viruses, fungi, pesticides, varroa mite and nutrition. Essentially, honey bees are under attack form all sides because increasingly they are operating in an artificial environment.
In the rest of the word, honeybee propagation of commercial crops is estimated as €215b. In Europe, CCD in conjunction with the varroa mite has decimated hives, but the carnage is far worse in the wild and native colonies. The dreadful effect of this is to reduce the pollination of wildflowers which in turn reduces the quality and quantity of honey produced.
Here in Ireland, where bees are reckoned to contribute €85m to the economy, the last three summers have been disastrous for our native and bred colonies. The key period of growth in hives in late June and July have coincided with the worst weather imaginable. The varroa mite has still to work its way through the existing colonies leaving behind more resistant strains.
In terms of a functioning population, our bee colonies are dying. There is very little or no commercial beekeeping in this country as we cannot compete with the more commercial and weather friendly countries in Europe, Australia and South America. All that remains is a steadfast group of hobbyists determined to maintain an ancient and essential tradition. CCD has yet to effect this country, one can only hope that our diverse spread in agriculture will ensure this won't happen.
So what can we do? I don't expect you all to become apiarists, but for those of you that have gardens or terraces or patios, think a little about what plants and flowers you will grow next year. Put a little time and effort into creating a wild area for flowers, or just plant flowers that are rich in nectar and bloom in the more productive months.
Bees are like canaries in a mineshaft, we need to take heed the damage we are causing to our environment.
Some years ago I was on a fruit farm in north county Dublin, which was cultivating strawberry plants out of season in plastic tunnels for the multiples. We were discussing a lot of issues, mostly multiple related, when the talk revolved around the more technical aspects of fruit growing.
It was the first time that I stated to understand the real importance of pollination, because the 'farmer' was using imported bumblebees to propagate his crop. In this particular instance, the advantages were that the bumblebees worked in relatively cold temperatures and operated in twilight hours, both very useful in an Irish climate.
So on a wider level did you know that bees, and honeybees in particular, pollinate the following crops: apples, pears, tangerines, peaches, soybeans, pumpkins, squash, cucumbers, cherries, blueberries, raspberries, blackberries, strawberries, carrots, broccoli, avocados and almonds?
In US terms, this is equivalent to $15b worth of crops. The US, in terms of bees is a basket case. On average 30% of hives have died off over the last three years owing to a variety of reasons, the most serious being Colony Collapse Disorder or CCD.
In CCD, the hive adults just simply vanish leaving the queen and a few hatched young workers. What makes it more unusual is that the hive remains untouched by neighbouring ones, who normally would plunder the honey and resources of hives affected by parasites and diseases.
As the bee genome has been completed, scientists researching the issue have identified differences between healthy and unhealthy colonies. It turns out that most of the various camps were right, although on a limited basis. So in other words the factors involved are viruses, fungi, pesticides, varroa mite and nutrition. Essentially, honey bees are under attack form all sides because increasingly they are operating in an artificial environment.
In the rest of the word, honeybee propagation of commercial crops is estimated as €215b. In Europe, CCD in conjunction with the varroa mite has decimated hives, but the carnage is far worse in the wild and native colonies. The dreadful effect of this is to reduce the pollination of wildflowers which in turn reduces the quality and quantity of honey produced.
Here in Ireland, where bees are reckoned to contribute €85m to the economy, the last three summers have been disastrous for our native and bred colonies. The key period of growth in hives in late June and July have coincided with the worst weather imaginable. The varroa mite has still to work its way through the existing colonies leaving behind more resistant strains.
In terms of a functioning population, our bee colonies are dying. There is very little or no commercial beekeeping in this country as we cannot compete with the more commercial and weather friendly countries in Europe, Australia and South America. All that remains is a steadfast group of hobbyists determined to maintain an ancient and essential tradition. CCD has yet to effect this country, one can only hope that our diverse spread in agriculture will ensure this won't happen.
So what can we do? I don't expect you all to become apiarists, but for those of you that have gardens or terraces or patios, think a little about what plants and flowers you will grow next year. Put a little time and effort into creating a wild area for flowers, or just plant flowers that are rich in nectar and bloom in the more productive months.
Bees are like canaries in a mineshaft, we need to take heed the damage we are causing to our environment.
Where have you been?
Well, @ politics.ie for the last 9 months.
Just to show I haven't been lazy I'll post some highlights..
Just to show I haven't been lazy I'll post some highlights..
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)