Not On My Watch

The Three Ages of Brian Lenihan

2011-07-11T11:17:00.000-07:00

This post specifically addresses my reflections of Brian Lenihan the politician. It does not reflect entirely on Brian Lenihan the human being. Anyone with an once of respect and dignity shall show such respect and dignity to someone who has unfailingly shown courage, warmth, compassion and humanity. As a person, he is someone I aspire to, because unlike me, he had grasped the opportunities available to him. Whatever his role in life he applied vigour, intelligence and hard work. As a father and a husband, I would imagine he was amongst the best.

If, like most of the media and politicians you feel that Brian Lenihan was a great statesman and a fine politician. This is not the post for you. You have been warned.

The Age of Innocence

Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die.

Brian Lenihan is not much older than me. That being the case, it's likely he was brought up like my generation where we adored our fathers. And you couldn't really blame him, his father Brian Lenihan Sr was recognised as being one of the more charismatic of the grey men of FF. No doubt their home would have been a constant buzz of excitement with numerous meetings to include the great and the good of Irish politics, or in Fianna Fails's case, the criminal and the corrupt.

Growing up under these circumstances, Brian Jr must have looked up to his father like none other. His father of course had a chequered history with the political party he belonged to. Apparently unable to choose between the knave and the fool (Haughey and Colley) he later amended the record of revisionism to indicate that he had indeed supported Haughey. No matter, stints as Minister for Justice, Minister for Education, Minister for Foreign Affairs and Minister for Transport were a more than adequate reward for a lifetime of mediocrity. None could say that Lenihan Sr. wasn't a charismatic and able Irish politician, but none would say he was an able statesman.

In 1990, Lenihan Sr made the transition to FF presidential candidate, a shoe-in if ever there was one. FF after all, had never lost a presidential election, and Lenihan was a popular choice. Unfortunately for him, three events were going to conspire against him. Firstly, in a needless effort of revisionism, Lenihan insisted that he had not pressurised President Hillery into refusing the dissolution of the Dáil in 1982, widely accepted by all as being a power play on behalf of Charlie Haughey. Unfortunately for him, a tape quickly surfaced featuring an interview with Lenihan admitting to phoning President Hillery for precisely this reason. Forced to admit he had lied - although the term used was 'on mature reflection' he then appeared on TV attempting to defuse the situation.

Things were to get worse. The PD's who were in government at the time wanted Lenihan's head on a stick or they would pull out of government. Haughey courageously drafted a resignation letter which Lenihan refused to sign on point of principal - that he was only doing what he was told. So Haughey sacked him through the presidential office. Lastly, Padraig Flynn's decision to attack the Labour candidate, Mary Robinson, completely backfired on the campaign and the consequences as we all know, led to a seismic change in Irish politics, for the better.

Brian Lenihan Jr was 31 years of age at this point. What do you think went through his mind? What do you think he thought of Charlie Haughey, his father's 'friend of 30 years'. What do you think he thought of Bertie Ahern his father's campaign manager? What do you think he thought of Padraig Flynn, the best example of everything FF stood for in milking the gravy train?

Let's park that for a minute, we'll move onto the next age.....

The Age of Advancement

I never met anyone who didn't have a very smart child. What happens to these children, you wonder, when they reach adulthood?

Life is so unfair sometimes, and so is the gene pool. From the same combination of mother and father can come unbelievable contrasts in looks, charisma and intelligence. Look for example, at Conor and Brian Lenihan. Same gene pool, same education. Except Conor just manages to get into journalism whereas Brian on the other hand, merely goes to SSC Cambridge by way of Trinity College all with first class honours. Lecturing Law in Trinity College he gets called to the bar in 1984. He marries a future circuit court judge and they have a gentleman's family. Conor...........well, Conor eventually on the death of his father inherits the family entitlement as a TD, entering the Dáil in 1997 where he joins his brother......

......hang on, hold up there! Joins his brother? Wasn't he a well known and well regarded barrister? Why on earth would he want to contest a by-election after his fathers death, especially when no-one thought he would win it? One can only assume that the political blood that courses through the veins of the Lenihans was strongest in the elder sibling, particularly when he won the election, based as it was more on his charisma, likeability and good-humour, as it was on a sympathy vote.

Re-elected in 1997, great things were predicted for Brian Jr, was he not one of the smartest kids on the block? Was he not stuffed with brains? Was he not exceptionally well educated and well spoken? Was he not fluent in French? Could he not quote literature, poetry and history by memory alone? Was he not a barrister, trained to understand any situation quickly, to arrive at suitable stratagems in the shortest time frame, and thence to use his oratory and rhetoric powers to convince all those around him of his merits?

Sadly for Brian, he met his antithesis in Bertie Ahern. Bertie wanted to be educated in UCD or the LSE, or so he and others would have us believe, but had to settle for being a DIT accounts clerk. Bertie could speak Dublinese. Bertie mangled every maxim and proverb in existence. Bertie couldn't quote anything remotely relevant if it wasn't a sporting event involving Dublin or Manchester United. Bertie was DNS. But, and crucially, Bertie had two things Brian didn't have, raw cunning and political experience.

So for six years Brian Lenihan Jr cooled his heels while Bertie ignored him. For the next 5 years after that Bertie made him Minister for Children, a sort of halfway house for the politically useless. This way, he could be part of the cabinet but not be required to use his ability, skills and influence to bear on his colleagues.

Presumably after 11 years of loyal service to FF, keeping his oh-so-clever mouth shut, Ahern finally decided that Lenihan could now be trusted with a proper job, so in 2007 he was made Minister for Justice, the post his father once held, and the one most appropriate to his experience and skillsets.

One has to wonder what Lenihan actually thought of this. Hadn't he cut off his career in its prime to take up the reins of his father's political career? Was he not 100 times more capable than anyone else in the cabinet? How on earth could anyone justify that someone with his God-given talents would be left out of any significant part in government for 11 years, just because some trumped up little political rat had a complex about him? Things were to change quickly though, because Bertie's past had finally caught up with him.

The Age of Delusion

He's not the messiah, he's a very naughty boy

Brian Cowen succeeded Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach in May 2008. One of his first actions was to recognise the supreme talent of one of his closest political allies, Brian Lenihan, by making him Minister of Finance. Not Tanaiste of course, that privilege went to his even closer friend, the idiot savant that is Mary Coughlan.

Cowen gave Lenihan the role as MoF because of its seniority, not because he was suited for the role. Not that he had any worries of course, after all, he, a mere solicitor, has sleepwalked his way through MoF over the last few years, no doubt an actual real live barrister would be an absolute genius.

Unfortunately for Brian & Brian the runaway train of global fiscal correction was heading down the tracks and Ireland Inc. was the car stuck at the level crossing. So. Standing between Ireland and fiscal ruin stood three people. Brian Cowen, Taoiseach, previous MoF, overseer of the biggest vanilla property boom ever seen in the EU, Mary Coughlan, Tanaiste, idiot savant, and Brian Lenihan, the smartest guy in the room.

Alas, Brian wasn't the smartest guy in the room anymore. That would be the lying bankers. A lifetime of being servile to the interests of FF ensured that he never questioned Brian Cowen. His inexperience in his brief ensured that he trusted his department officials, even if they insisted the problem was liquidity and not solvency.

And now we get to the crux of Brian Lenihan Jr. This was a brilliant, affable, and intelligent man. Someone who would make a consummate politician, statesman, Taoiseach. A man far, far abler than any of his peers in FF. And yet, and yet, this is a man that saw his father shafted by his party for political expediency after decades of loyal service. This is a man who sacrificed his career in memory of his father. This is a man who every day he looked at his brother could see how lucky random chance can be. This is a man who kept his mouth shut for 11 years where he was pointedly ignored by a charlatan masquerading as a leader of the country. And when finally asked to step into the breach with all this experience, knowledge and baggage, comprehensively failed the people of this country.

Brian Lenihan is a statesman? He was no such thing. Above all politicians this learned, intelligent and able individual never put his country first. Because his first loyalty was to his party and his leader. Excusable perhaps for some neophyte journeyman, but inexcusable for a veteran in realpolitik, who given an opportunity to redress the wrongs slung at his father, compounded them in his miserable cowardly failure to stand up for the State against the party.

Brian Lenihans legacy is to financially cripple this State, to stigmatise this state with an IMF and EU bailout, and to destroy his reputation not just through his actions, but also his inactions, and in his inability to never once admit that he, or the party he served with such blind stupidity were wrong in any - ANY - of their financial actions.

J'accuse Brian Lenihan. Failure to the citizens of this country.

Death of Irish Industry 2012-2012

2011-04-19T03:09:00.000-07:00

It's important at various times in our roller-coaster economy (a misnomer though, as it also implies upward motions), it is important to catch one's breath and observe the situation in more detail. This allows us to make an assessment of the wider economy and make a calculated perspective of the road ahead.

Accordingly, my observation for the next 12 months is exceptionally negative, and I will outline the reasons why over the next few paragraphs. I would welcome comments and opinion that agree and hopefully, disagree with my findings.

1. The twin-track economy. We have two economies in Ireland. We have one that is a mostly export driven one that specialises in products and services that people actually need. This economy is doing quite well as a comparison to the domestic one, but only on the basis that the wider global economy continues to show growth. This economy of course is what the government is counting on to raise our near-dead economic corpse off its death-bed in order to service our enormous tax burden. The fate of this economy is unknown purely because it is completely out of our hands. At any stage, the winds of ill-fortune may ensure a double-dip depression in the US, and thus the rest of the world. The only thing to be positive about is that the doom-sayers have been advocating this for the last two years with nothing to show for it......so far.

2. The narrow gauge track. This is our domestic economy, it's what we sell and service to ourselves and boy, is it screwed. And it's screwed for a number of reasons...

3. First and primarily there is a continuing lack of confidence out there in consumer-land who are hoarding on to what gains they have in what banks or deposit based financial institutions that are left. This lack of confidence is perfectly understandable, but the main driving factor is that the consumer cannot see any end to the recession in sight, particularly with interest rate hikes forecast through the ECB.

4. Secondly we have a lack of credit in the marketplace. So from an Irish business perspective we have businesses that cannot access finance to tie them over the rough times as the banks simply don't have any money. Furthermore, banks have been actively decreasing their credit facilities in terms of reducing overdrafts or calling in existing loans. Now, in times of recession this is no bad thing as it weeds out unviable and unsustainable businesses that can only succeed in times of bubble economies. What is different now however, is that companies which are perfectly viable and sustainable are going to wall due to lack of credit and an inability to get paid by their debtors. In short, this weeding process has now gone too far, and the longer it goes on, the more and unrepairable the damage becomes.

5. Thirdly we now have serious upward pressures in terms of inflation, particularly for the manufacturing and service industries. Let me give you a simple example. At the moment we have a transport companies hammering on our doors looking to get our modest 32 county transport business. They are continually under-cutting themselves in terms of a 32 county pallet rate because they know our business is sound and they will get paid. In normal times this would be a welcome development, in times when raw costs such as diesel prices are going through the roof it's pretty clear this is not competition, it's desperation. It will literally be last man standing. And for every fuel increase there is every other kind of commodity increase you can think of which brings us to...

6. The slow and painful death of the Irish suppliers into the retail sector. What we have here is a big squeeze. From the topside, Irish manufacturers for the domestic market are facing enormous pressures on prices because of commodity increases in raw materials, increased energy costs and then a lack of credit to pay for them. They are selling these products into multiples that are looking for price reductions on the basis that their own customers are looking for value for money in a recession. In this impossible scenario something has got to give, and that something is not going to be the multiple or the consumer. So what we have here is the slow bleeding out of Irish manufacturers to be replaced by foreign imports, and this is on the basis that they are cheaper due to reduced manufacturing costs owing to scale and access to finance. A quick win for the Irish consumer, and a slow death for the domestic economy. You will see this as more and more business goes 'own brand' and I can guarantee you that 'own brand' with the exception of meats etc won't be Irish.

Therefore my supposition is that a lot of viable Irish businesses are about to hit the wall in the next 12 months unless the government take drastic steps to ameliorate the situation. This will become apparent as our unemployment rates continue to rise and our net emigration increases. Accordingly, the tax burden on those that remain, and remain employed becomes greater and more intolerant.

In the words of the film 'Something's Gotta Give'

Greece vs Ireland - Austerity Measures

2010-10-27T12:26:00.000-07:00

Yes, after availing of the EU/IMF Stability Fund and paying a modest 5% rate of interest on the €110b in funding required to stabilise the country's finances, the IMF and the EU have insisted on the following austerity measures:

*Reduce the budget deficit from 13.6% to 3% by 2014
*Pay freeze on all public sector employees
*Scrapping the annual bonus scheme (basically a 20% bonus on wages)
*Increase in the retirement age from the current one of 62
*Full pension rights increased from minimum 37 to 40 years service
*Pensions to reflect average rather than final salary in the public sector
*VAT from 21% to 23%, increases to alcohol, cigarettes and fuel taxation
*Taxing of illegal construcion
*Privatisation of various state and semi-state bodies

Above we can see what the dreaded IMF will insist on just to provide Greece with the funding required to keep the nation afloat. Scary eh? Not really is it?

Let's be clear, regardless of our banking crisis and our incompetent governance, we are not Greece, not by a long way. Firstly we never lied about our balance of payments, we are a genuine open market economy, we have a generous corporate rate of tax, we have a language that everyone understands and we don't rely on tourism as an exclusive means to wealth.

So if we were to avail of the solidarity fund, how much worse would it be compared to the austerity measures that we have put in place and are going to put in place? Not a lot based on the evidence above.

But in the meantime, let's just destroy what's left of our economy while we pretend that the markets will allow us a sub-5% yield and that we can actually manage to get our deficit to 3% by 2014....

2011 and the Death of the Gombeen Princes

2010-10-26T13:29:00.001-07:00

With the GE of 2011 we will finally see the end of a particular plague in Irish politics. The nature of our democratic process always lends itself to a coalition government, and the 2+1 nature of previous governments has had the added affliction of having independents and pseudo-independents all extracting their pound of flesh in order to support the status quo. But it's not as simple as that. The independent gombeen princes can only garner so much in favour and kind but retain their seats on the backbenches. Their power is limited compared to the real princes, who, because of their ability to top the local polls and bring in one or more TD's based on their surplus and preferences, have sought and maintained a ministry role within government and then used their influences at national level to bring favour to their local constituency.

And so since the early 1980's we have had a cyclical scenario in Irish politics where, thanks to the withdrawal of local taxation - which reinforced the reduction in the perceived role of councillors against TD's - we had a situation where people voted on local issues rather than national ones, nothing new I understand, but now a perception grew that by voting for independents and certain politicians, the constituents would gain in terms of employment, access to services, and improvement to those services and infrastructure. And this became self-prophesying. What was the point in voting for a national candidate when a local driven candidate could offer so much more in terms of payback? Thus we have 30 years where the local and parastatal nature of Irish politics and semi-state bodies has only increased their relevence and importance.

In order to bring this to a natural conclusion, we also have to pay attention to the other topic that has ruined our political landscape and that is the nature of legacy politics.

Roughly speaking, and paying little attention to offending sensibilities, legacy politics is literally dying on its feet. The idea of voting for a political party purely for family reasons is an anachronistic trapping from the past. By and large it benefits only two parties, FF and FG. A generalisation and perhaps a truism, is that these voters are both rural and aged. We have already seen how the rural/urban divide is striking in terms of how the respective voters vote. It's FF/FG in the rural areas and Labour/FG in the urban ones. The significance however, is that as this century continues along, populations continue to cluster towards the cities and away from these legacy strongholds. Furthermore, the forthcoming decade of stagnation will further increase the legacy flight by means of emigration to urban and foreign destination.

And so in 2011, we will have a coalition government with a comparative enormous majority over the opposition. FF, Green, SF and Independent TD's will be completely irrelevant in terms of importance in local and indeed national politics, The Irish electorate are no fools in terms of electing self-serving politicians. What is the point in electing these TD's if they are in no position to action on the promises whispered in bars, funerals and houses of their constituents? We will, after a very long time, finally have a government with a full mandate to govern on national issues only, with a sufficient majority to see things through, and a genuine opportunity to bring about genuine political reform.

It is at this point that we reach the unknown. Strategists in Labour and FG will be spending quite a lot if time cogitating on their most important task, and that is, remaining in power and a further reduction in FF's power-base. And therein lies the rub. Unless the forthcoming coalition engenders genuine political reform by doing away with the local parastatal nature of Irish politics, promoting local government to its proper place and installing a list system, we risk the possibility of returning to this awful spectre within 5 years. This cannot happen again. The unbelievable circumstances that have arisen to allow this change occur - and the price we are paying for it - must not be wasted. It is imperative that Labour and FG launch their campaigns on a joint platform of wide-reaching reform. This opportunity can only come about in the best of times and the worst of times.

Paddy Power odds on final recapitalising Anglo-Irish

2010-09-04T03:02:00.000-07:00

Hello punters.

We asked our favourite bookies to give us odds on the how much money we're going to plough into our least favourite banks. Here's what they had to say:

Singles Only. Applies to the final cost of the recapitalisation of Anglo Irish Bank as confirmed in an official statement by the Department of Finance. PP decision final.

Under €22 billion

5/1

€22 - €23.999 billion

9/1

€24 - €25.999 billion

9/2

€26 - €27.999 billion

11/4

€28 - €29.999 billion

5/1

€30 - €31.999 billion

8/1

€32 - €33.999 billion

9/1

€34 billion or over

3/1

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/current-affairs/anglo-irish-bank?ev_oc_grp_ids=355595

Sneakily they've lumped all the €34b+ into one set of odds, thus preventing us from having a 5 to 1 shot on €40b, my favoured final cost. Still, this represents the only way we are likely to get any of our money back on Anglo, so be my guest....

BETSLIP Selections: 0 Help

BS_HELP

Here we go again....

2010-08-26T06:58:00.000-07:00

Let's look at another Green classic shall we?

You all know that we are about to receive a 5% hike in ESB charges this winter. The timing could not be worse, the reasons for this being self-explanatory. The main cause of the increase is the levy surcharged to support the burning at our peat-burning power stations, for which there are various legislation that insists we must operate. Typically, this is to ensure that we have an independent power source in case our importation of fuel sources are ever shut off.

This perspective is of course, so 1970's. The Russians are not going to turn off the gas, OPEC is not going to shut down oil supply and we are busy building inter-connectors to the UK and beyond for nuclear power amonst others.

So what do we know about electricity derived from burning peat?

Well, we know that it is the most expensive format we have in producing electricity.
We know that it is the worst polluter and CO2 transmitter of all our energy sources.
We know that the EU has legislation and is bringing in further restrictions to reduce and then stop the use of peat bogs for fuel purposes as per the various EU directives on the protection of habitats.

Eamon Ryan has been the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources for over three years now. He is perceived as the least incompetent Green TD, and certainly as an able minister compared to John Gormley.

And yet, one would think that the first thing a Green Minister of Energy would do is seek to repeal the archaic laws on peat burning stations. After all, it's too expensive, it's too polluting and it's environmentally unacceptable. So for three years the minister sits on his hands while his colleague, Mr Gormley, fully enforces EU laws on protecting habitats by making it unlawful for turf cutters to cut their turf on their own land.

This is a perfect synopsis of Green policy. They don't get the big, medium or small picture. They don't understand basic ideology and policy changes that deal with big issues and conveniently ignore small ones (like small time turf cutting and use of commercial vehicles).

They are the worst, hypocritical, Neanderthal, moronic policy makers in the history of this State, because unlike FF who enact policies to make FF look good whilst lining the pockets of themselves and their friends, they enact policies or make statements that they firmly believe in, without actually thinking them through.

Please ensure the extinction of this species at the next election.....

Not buying the Sindo anymore

2010-07-27T00:36:00.000-07:00

In the end it was an easy decision to make, helped in no small part by having access to the Sunday Business Post last weekend, the comparison was inevitable. We do love reading our Sunday newspapers and the kids are trained to tip-toe around us in the morning while we digest the news. Funnily enough, if you asked us on Monday what we actually read, it's unlikely we'd be able to tell you anything and any great detail.

The fact of the matter is the Sunday Independent (Sindo), is now only successful because it has a high readership. The page after page of adverts for multiples proves this, the money follows the readership figures, and that's all what it's about.

The sad demise of Alan Ruddock certainly doesn't help in terms of stories or content. The big beast is now confused, it knows it has to reflect the mass of readers who can't stand the government or its policies and therefore promotes the collective outrage, because it has to remain popular. And yet it still wants to remain truthful to its FF leanings, and therefore continues to use patriots like Larkin and O'Dea to push a friendly sanctuary all hoping for a return to favourable opinion polls, where it can then go back to its normal full-on support.

We don't need this as a country, in fact, the Sindo is a direct reflection of our country and its politics. Too big to fail? That's the Sindo. Lazy dogma and ideas thrown in with no great attention to detail or consequences? That's the Sindo. Relying on a rump of support in its rural strongholds? That's the Sindo. Like FF, the Sindo doesn't understand the necessity for statesmen rather than politicians, it is a rural backwater of gombeen relationships sprinkled with Benny-Hill moments to try and keep its readership numbers maximised.

Will people cop-on and consign this rag to the dustbin? Sadly, unlikely to happen in my time, no matter how long that might be. But even the longest journey has to start with the first step, and in this instance, I'm taking mine next Sunday.....

John Gormley, Grandmaster Quisling and Hypocrite

2010-05-26T12:01:00.000-07:00

Minister Gormley is in the process of putting the finishing touches to banning Stag Hunting in Ireland, a 'vital' component for the current program for government. Of course, this ban will not stop stag hunting in Ireland, because deer will still be shot and killed both legally in terms of culling numbers, and illegally for those hunting trophies.

The ban in stag hunting will affect the only stag hunting club in the Republic, the Ward Union Hunt. The WUH maintains a 150 strong Red Deer herd in Co Meath. The hunt, of which there are several a year, takes place by segregating a healthy adult deer from the herd, transporting it to a set location, and then chasing it down using hounds with the intention of capturing it again. Is this cruel? Absolutely. And as we have seen, there have been incidents of stags having to be put down or entering into public or private lands and giving rise to potential injury or death.

However, isn't it astonishing that the minister is taking such an enthusiastic zeal in dealing with what is after all, an anachronistic event involving a bunch of would-be-toffs that has absolutely no abiding consequence on the deer population in Ireland? Mr Gormley has spent well over a €1,000,000 of taxpayers money in an attempt to shut down this hunt, including losing €300,000 alone in one failed court case. Would this money not be better spent in doing something constructive about the deer population in Ireland?

Nobody is in a position to give a definitive answer on what the deer population in Ireland is. One hunter of national prominence has indicated that the deer population in Ireland may well be between 30 and 40 times its sustainable level. The difficulty in verifying this is because the minister, who is now three years in office, has failed to do the one basic action everyone has been asking for - a national deer census. He's perfectly happy to count frogs thanks to EU directives, but when it comes to compiling basic facts that you can draw conclusions from, he's happier spending money off on wild legal goose chases.

Let's be clear on this, even the most ardent deer lover is prepared to admit that the deer population is out of control over large portions of Ireland, a particularly bad spot being the Dublin and Wicklow Mountains. The NPWS organises hunting (culls) sanctioned and increased by the minister since he has been in office to try and control the population, but with no census, we have no way of establishing if this is having the desired effect. Even worse, the illegal hunting of deer is on a scale equivalent and even surpassing the legal activity. It's quite lucrative in that hunters both in Ireland and abroad will pay substantial sums of money to be given the opportunity to hunt deer. Of course, the problem with this is that they are mostly interested in hunting stags because they are trophy hunting, and this has little lasting effect on controlling deer numbers.

In the meantime, our rampaging deer population (one assumes as we have no census) are doing millions of Euros worth of damage to crops and indigenous flora, which has a knock on effect on native fauna. You may wonder why there is little native hardwood forestry in Ireland? Well the reason is that the little blighters will chew and strip every sapling they can get their teeth and tongues into by preference to anything else, and ring-fencing the trees is too commercially expensive in spite of the grants made available. So the deer quite happily reside in their Sitka Spruce mono-cultural night residences only to forage down from the mountains where and when they want.

This is the sheer hypocrisy of John Gormley, he wastes hundreds of thousands of Euros tackling the irrelevancy of the WUH to appease the anti-hunting element in the Green Party, thus making it a Green central plank on the PfG, but completely fails to deal with the bigger, more overriding issue of deer control. A competent minister would start the ball rolling with a deer census, then get all the stakeholders together and drum up a steering group, with the express aim of coordinating the conservation, maintenance and control of the national deer herd for betterment of one and all. The minister's hypocrisy is helpful to no-one, save his own ego and stupidity.

In the meantime, I note Mr. Gormley in his best quisling role taking on a photo shoot of the first Red Kites born in this country for over 200 years. The minister has been in charge for three years, and yet he has done nothing to protect the attempts to reintroduce Red Kites, Golden and Sea Eagles in this country from rampant poisoning. Indeed, this is the worst year on record, happening directly on his watch. No new legislation, no random searches of farms, no random searches of suspect areas identified from tracking tags, no arrests, no prosecutions. NO. NOTHING.

This is a minister of self-serving drivel, a man of inaction, worse, a man whose few actions are counter-productive and inconsequential, because his limitations in ability and aptitude blinker him from realising simple, basic, tasks and legislation. He is a failure in common sense, a failure as a representative of the Green Party, and the sooner the country is rid of this hypocritical quisling, the better.

Theory-crafting on the conspiracy behind the Bank Guarantee Scheme

2010-04-24T16:20:00.000-07:00

Lately I've been mulling over the whole bank guarantee scheme and the subsequent nationalisation of Anglo Irish Bank. There's a lot about it which doesn't sound or feel right, so in order to progress this along, I'm going to talk about the elements involved and as a consequence, a theory that I wish to proffer for your entertainment.

Let's start with some assumptions.

1. We know that in 2008 INBS bonds were rated just one level above junk status. We know that numerous issues involving the running of the bank had been raised at AGM level and in all the national media. We know that Brian Cowen had gone out of his way to facilitate INBS to be demutualised. In short, this was a financial organisation that was allowed to do whatever it felt appropriate without any objectivity from the financial regulator or the Central Bank, let alone the Minister of Finance.

2. We know that in 2008 Anglo-Irish was in huge trouble. The bond markets had given their verdict during Drumm's attempts to raise more capital in his US roadshow in the summer of 2008; there were no takers. Of all the indigenous financial institutions on ISEQ, Anglo were looked upon as being the weakest link, and by targeting the bank, the markets were effecting all said institutions.

3. Now we move to the night of the 29th of September 2008. Apparently no record or minutes were ever taken to explain or substantiate what happened that night. But it does appear, at least from my perspective, that a decision was already place before that fateful night. We know that the various executives and chairmen of BoI and AIB were entertained, albeit briefly, before they were informed of the governments decision. But it is quite clear, that nothing that the banks representatives said or did, had any bearing on the final decision to guarantee all the liabilities of all the indigenous lending institutions.

4. It's interesting that the bank guarantee scheme is unique to Ireland. Other countries nationalised or part-nationalised their financial institutions who were suffering difficulties. Most countries offered some form of guarantee on deposits. But nobody went to the altar of cojones on the block like we did.The reactions to the newly announced scheme varied from hostile (the UK), to perplexed and surprised (the ECB) to wholehearted support (the US and financial markets).

5. It is possible to believe that Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan were unaware of the seriousness of the banks financial position in September 2008. Certainly there can be no doubt that the banks had systemically lied about their capitalisation to all and sundry. What's not possible to believe however, is that in the four months from guarantee to nationalisation for Anglo Irish, that the Finance minister (presumably having eventually read the auditors reports) considered the institution to be of systemic economic importance to the State.

6. The guarantee scheme spawned the nationalisation of Anglo and the subsequent strain on our finances in conjunction with the recapitalisation of INBS. Everyone agrees that the other financial institutions are systemic to our economy and worth saving, regardless of the price. Only the government seems to think the same applies to Anglo and INBS. Under the terms of the scheme we are stuck to this course of action until Sept 2010 when a new guarantee scheme will be put in place. We are told that the new scheme will be a watered down version, but little detail has been discussed. Is there an implicit threat that the government will rescind its guarantee to bondholders in Anglo and INBS and use that to wind down the banks and give only a percentage back to the bondholders? No one can say, but the threat, if real, remains.

7. In the meantime, our borrowings are forecast to explode over the next few years as we play catch-up with Greece. Now there is no comparison between the two countries if we are to be honest. We don't have to borrow €50b or so for each of the next three years. We haven't systemically lied about our financial situation. We are in the middle of an approved austerity program organised to get our deficit under some control. And yet, don't you find that we get an enormous amount of credit from the international financial community? That we are held as some international paragon in comparison to the pariah state that is Greece. The markets aren't stupid, they know only too well how bad the situation is, and will be, in Ireland, much as they knew how bad things were in INBS and Anglo.

8. Which brings us to the government bond auctions by the NTMA. They are always, repeat always, a stunning success. Always oversubscribed, always 100% facilitated, a great pat on the back for the financial and economic strategies of this government.

9. So this brings me to my thesis. It is my belief and opinion that prior to Sept 2008, we have done a deal with the international markets. From a conspiracy perspective you can argue that this was facilitated by the Bilderberg Group, or the Wandering Jew, or Jesse Ventura. It doesn't really matter. What we have here is the biggest quid pro quo in Irish financial history. In this we, the people, as represented by B&B, are guaranteeing all the liabilities of the banks, and specifically, all the international bondholders. In return for having all their bonds guaranteed by the state, these same institutions are beholden to make encouraging noises about our fiscal strategy and of course, buy up our auctions of government bonds.

10. So far this dance of financial symbiosis has been adhered to by both parties. The government, because of the 2 year duration of the guarantee scheme, and the bondholders/investors because of the uncertainty of what happens when the guarantee is up.

The Real Politik behind Quinn Group

2010-04-11T03:53:00.000-07:00

Anglo are proposing to pay off the bondholders in QI €550m to ensure that QI stays in the group. The alternative is that QI gets sold for a fire sale price with Anglo last in the queue to get any financial return. That leaves Quinn Group, less the cash cow, owing Anglo €2.8b + whatever has still to be paid to the other banks.

Quinn Group is now insolvent and the carcase gets stripped down and sold for more fire sale prices to the other banks and finally, Anglo get to pick over what's left. Net return on their €2.8b, not an awful lot. In addition we have the politically unpalatable scenario of the Quinn Group collapsing with a large amount of job losses, companies being shut down and the finger of blame being placed on the government.

The alternative that Anglo are proposing is that for another 25% worth of debt in the company (€550m for the bondholders and €150m equity for QI), and bringing the net amount owed to Anglo to €3.5b, they get a controlling interest in the entire group. Sean Quinn remains as chairman, but realistically Anglo will be putting in their own management team.

The thinking behind this means that Anglo are now in a position to sell off the components of Quinn at the most suitable time, using the cash cow of QI to support the areas of the business that aren't functioning. In my viewpoint, this increases their chances of making some money back, and is a better option than the current one, sitting on the sidelines waiting for the vultures to finish off Quinn.

There's also the political aspect behind this. For the current government, failing to save Quinn Group is likely to ferment dissension in their backbenchers, increasing the likelihood of a GE being called at the worst possible time for the governmental parties. It's also highly that the write-off in the debts to Anglo may finally kill off the bank and it will be run down.

I really wouldn't like to be the regulator now, the pressure must be enormous coming from all the interested parties. I do think the opposition should be seen getting involved in what is a critical moment for the State, but they are as hamstrung as the government are in terms of the forthcoming election, and can't be seen to doing anything that will effect their own popularity.

For the record, I do not support the government and have a reputation on the for being ABFF, nonetheless, that doesn't mean that I conveniently ignore the political and financial realism of the current situation.

J'accuse - Brian Lenihan

2010-03-31T08:52:00.001-07:00

On the 29th of September 2008, Brian Lenihan and Brian Cowen met with Brian Goggin and Richard Burrows of BoI and Dermot Gleeson and Eugene Sheehy of AIB. During this meeting, supported by officials from the Finance Ministry, Lenihan put forward his proposals for the bank guarantee scheme, a scheme that would guarantee all the liabilities in the banks, including the bonds of all the Irish banks.

In January 15th, Brian Lenihan announced that Anglo-Irish Banks was of systemic importance to Ireland and nationalised it. There was no choice in doing this, because we as the taxpayer, would have had to reimburse the vast majority of liabilities in the bank owing to that guarantee.

Today, Lenihan has announced that the expected bill for this nationalisation is a minimum of €22b. There can be no other conclusion that the decision to guarantee the liabilities in Anglo-Irish was the worst financial decision ever made in the (short) history of our country, likely never to be matched, and certainly never surpassed.

I believe Brian Lenihan to be an honourable man, I believe that when he made the statement extolling the virtues and importance of Anglo Irish, he did so not as a fabrication or obsfucation, but because he was merely incompetent and negligent.

Accordingly, and as a citizen of this State, because of this gross negligence and incompetence, I call on him to resign his position forthwith, and Brian Cowen, who backed his judgement and decisions, to allow this state and its citizens to pass judgement in a general election. __________________

Frank Fahey sees Shell to the sea shore

2010-03-15T03:43:00.000-07:00

Well, we started off with The Atlantic Dawn controvosy where our Frank generously provided temporary licences to this http://weblog.greenpeace.org/oceandefenders/archive/2006/04/mauritania_ship_from_hell.html until it could swap with its sister ship the Veronica. Next we moved on to the the Lost at Sea saga, where the bold Frank patently favoured his constituents over other deserving causes, much to the annoyance of his department and the then attorney general. This process is now causing a rift between the government parties and the Ombudsman, with good old Danny Boyle sticking his moral oar into the thick of things again.

But, we're not finished yet. This new post is going to focus on yet another example of why Mr. Fahey is not fit for any office. It is my contention that our Frank is in the middle of a rehabilitation process with Brian Cowen. Regularly sent out to bat for NAMA, Frank '40 gaffs' Fahey http://www.businessandfinance.ie/blog_post.jsp?blogID=15&a=2653 is now embroiled in a stand-off between the government parties and the Ombudsman. Why on earth are FF and the Greens preventing the Ombudsman from getting a fair hearing and closing ranks around Fahey, particularly when you consider that Sargent and Fahey have had a hate/hate relationship over the years? Let's ramp up the pressure still further and examine another classic example of how we associate the word 'stroke' with Frank Fahey.

As with all stories, it's important to start at the beginning. The Corrib Gas Field was discovered in 1996, our first commercial gas discovery since the Kinsale Field in 1973. For a resource free country like ourselves, a very important find. The licence for the exploration of the field was granted in 1993, over a period of 11 years. The licence was given to Enterprise Oil and its partners. After the Shell bought out Enterprise Oil in 2002, the breakdown of the consortium is as follows; Shell (operator) (45%), Statoil (36,5%) and Marathon (now Vermilion) (18,5%).

The timing of this is important, because in 1975, Labour minister Justin Keating gave the state a 50% stake plus royalties of 6 to 7% in any commercial find. In 1985, Ray Burke, the corrupt FF minister, abandoned the stake and the royalties. In 1992, Bertie Ahern, the then finance minister, now currently under scrutiny with the Mahon Tribunal, reduced the tax rate applicable to the oil companies by 25% under intense lobbying from the oil companies. Not only that, but the companies were allowed to deduct tax against commercial costs over the previous 25 years.

In fairness to Ahern and Burke, the fact is that we are not a resource rich country, and therefore companies need to be given as many incentives as possible. Notwithstanding that, we have to deal with the facts that the Corrib Gas Field presents us with, and that is its current worth is anywhere between €9.5b and €22b, and our tax take from the profits is the lowest in any equivalent country in the world, money that we desperately require in our current extremis.

So back to 1996, and the consortium are sitting pretty with their multi-billion Euro and practically tax-free find, but with the rather major issue on how they were going to connect their find to the Bord Gáis network on the mainland. In order to connect to the network, the gas needs to be refined first. This can either be done offshore or onshore. Offshore is certainly rather expensive, millions of Euro more expensive than refining onshore.

Lucky for the consortium that they found a willing collaborator in Frank Fahey. As minster of state for the marine and natural resources, he was heavily lobbied by Enterprise Oil executive, John McGoldrick, resulting in the following concessions.

1. He introduced orders allowing acquisition of lands for the gas pipeline.
2. He granted the foreshore license allowing the consortium to land the pipeline.
3. He oversaw the sale of 400 acres of land from Coillte to the consortium to allow the construction of the refinery.

The acquisition of lands: For the first time in the history of this state, Compulsory Acquisition Orders were being used as a direct benefit to a company or conglomerate, rather than the State itself.

The foreshore license: This was granted in 2002 just before the General Election. It enabled the pipeline to be built within 70m of the inhabitants houses.

The Coillte sell-off: Here is Coillte's perspective on land sales:

Coillte owns an estate of 445,421 hectares, which is distributed widely around the country. Coillte's practice is to sell, lease or develop a limited area of non-strategic land, for purposes other than forestry. Most sales are made in response to local demand and typically comprise house sites, isolated dwelling houses, sections of recently acquired farms, small outlying forest properties and gravel pits. [B]Land may also be sold to local authorities for infrastructure projects and for industrial or tourism projects[/B]. Properties sold are those considered not to be of strategic importance to the company's forest business, and properties whose sale would not adversely impact on plans for future management of forests and where value exceeds forest value. A Signing Off Committee within Coillte considers all land sales, with larger sales requiring approval from Coillte's Board of Directors.

Nothing there to indicate sales to international conglomerates for massive refining projects.

In 2009, An Bord Pleanala objected to the current location of the pipeline as reported in the Irish Times:

Bord Pleanála says that up to half of the proposed nine kilometre onshore route for the Corrib gas pipeline is "unacceptable" on safety grounds, due to proximity to housing in Rossport and Glengad.

The board has suggested that Shell E&P Ireland and its Corrib gas partners explore another route, up the Sruwaddacon estuary, and has given the company three months to come back with detailed information on the route, design and safety of the high pressure pipe.

In a four page letter issued today, the board says that the current application "does not present a complete, transparent and adequate demonstration" that the high pressure pipeline "does not pose an unacceptable risk to the public.

It also says that the impact of construction on a designated rural area in Rossport would "seriously injure residential amenities" and the development potential of lands there. It notes that part of the pipeline route onshore was omitted from the application.

Shell E&P Ireland has until February 5th, 2010 to respond to a series of points raised by the board, which represents a significant setback for the project's time schedule.

All of which results in the delay of the pipeline and the introduction of Corrib Gas into the Irish network. It has also resulted in the cost to the State of millions of Euro in maintaining the Gardaí presence in Bellanaboy, the jailing of local inhabitants (justified or not), and negative headlines all over the world.

The man responsible for all this is Frank Fahey. Mr Fahey could easily have insisted on Shell refining the gas at sea, an option more expensive, but without all the added controversy. Instead Mr Fahey actively went out of his way to aid and assist Shell and its other consortium partners for no discernible reason whatsoever.

Mr Fahey is not interested in local people (not unless they are his constituents of course), he is not interested in the environment (hence Trevor Sargent's previous savaging of him), he is only interested in an obscure patronage that no one can define in any reasonable terminology.

Mikhail Gorbachev -- "What is the difference between a statesman and a politician?... A statesman does what he believes is best for his country."

This is the land of politicians, and Frank Fahey is at the bottom of them.

AIB give two fingers to common sense....

2010-03-03T02:11:00.000-08:00

Colm O'Doherty, the AIB CE) (between the lines) and Richard Bruton (in screaming headlines) were advocating the selling off of AIB's performing assets; namely their operating interests in Poland, the UK and the US.

This is a fire sale strategy to raise as much capital as possible to reduce the stake the State has to take in AIB. It's pretty much the same a bank forcing you to sell off your house right now so you can pay back some or all of your mortgage.

It's also a complete contradiction to the bank indicating that it will raise interest and mortgage rates to customers to become profitable again, whilst simultaneously selling off their most profitable assets.

Will someone please stop this stupidity and put matchsticks into Bruton's eyes.

Trevor Sargent - end of the government? maybe not.....

2010-02-24T02:04:00.000-08:00

So here we are in full flow on politics.ie......

http://www.politics.ie/green-party/124396-trevor-sargent-hot-water-over-headed-notepaper-letter-garda.html

Mixed feelings here. As a previous lifelong Green supporter I've never forgiven him for going into government with FF even if he did the 'honourable' thing in resigning as leader. You see, most of the Green candates were elected on transfers from FG, Labour, SF and independent voters, if we'd seriously thought for a minute that the Greens would support the mercenaries of corruption, none of them would have been elected.

I can't help but feel however, that Sargent's attempt to influence the prosecution of the individual involved was well intentioned, out of what he and I would perceive as being a social injustice. He can't argue that he had no choice but to resign, but I actually sympathise with his position and I'm sorry that it has come to this.

How has it come to this?

The toxic horror that is the FF party is making a mockery of the Greens and everything they have previously stood for. Any Green who honestly thinks that the leaking of the letters to The Herald (of all papers - laughable) is a pure coincidence only needs to read the history books on previous FF coalitions.

This isn't funny, it's not sad, it's not a moral history lesson, it's not a parable for our children........it's a cruel, sick parody of a party that used to have a meaning and a purpose.

Of course, the main interest in this is who leaked the letters to the Evening Herald. As usual, the knee-jerk reaction was that it sounded exactly like a FF stunt.

The individual involved in the leak knows that their career, whatever their profession, is finished if their identity becomes known. Why therefore, take such a risk, particularly as the you can be certain that senior Gardaí, stung by O'Dea's accusation, will very much want to get to the bottom of this and proceed with a prosecution if applicable.

Said individual will know that as long as his identity remains intact, the suspicion of any rational person will assume that they are connected with FF.

Releasing the letters to the Evening Herald is bizarre. This would indicate that the paper was chosen because the indvidual has an acquaintance in the paper or has had some previous dealings with individual(s) in that rag.

Conclusion therefore: individual involved, angered by what had happened to O'Dea and having access to the letters - possibly from some months ago - uses the easiest and most direct option to release them.

I believe that the individual will be connected loosely to FF, I believe their identity will be known within the week, and happily, I believe the government will fall as a consequence.

O'Dea was grotesque in his actions
It's unbelievable that Sargent was be so foolish as to write those letters
The connection with the leaker will be bizarre
And the fall out for both parties will be unprecedented

Until one of the posters, lostexpectation, came up with a very plausible explanation:

could the journalist not have gotten the letter from the guy trevor tried to help, he obviously felt hard done by and had been trying to raise the matter anywhere he could, think, "contentiousness neighbour prosecuted after suffering assault!!", "you can't reprimand kids because you're afraid of the parents" but then the journalist saw another story and waiting till the case was over last week and went with the sargeant angle

Now this makes sense, it's also possible that someone with access to the letters (or copies of them) related to the constituent might have passed them on to the Gardaí. And the reasoning behind accepting this explanation goes as follows:

1. It ties in with the time line of the case
2. It explains why it was released to the Evening Herald
3. It gets around the issue as to why someone in FF would leak the letters cognisant of the allegations that would arise
4. It explains why Cowen would appear confident enough to deny the allegations

So at the moment, while I want it to be FF behind the leak or more likely someone loosely connected to FF, I'm afraid the probability is somewhat more mundane.

On George Lee resigning...

2010-02-08T05:40:00.000-08:00

I'm sorry, but if you are elected to represent your constituency as best you can and you feel like you are not making the difference in your party, then the onus is either to change that, or leave the party. Lee here shows a knee-jerk reaction that is self-serving at its worst. If he really wanted to make a difference he could have resigned from FG and represented his constituency as an independent, thus having the same impact on FG as his current resignation, but with the benefits of maintaining his reputation and seat.

Next, this represents all you need to know about the current leadership in FG. Lee would have made a difference to the party is he had been given a prominent role, even if that role was token, as long as it kept him in the media spotlight. This is where his skills are, and the onus was on Kenny to provide him with this role and no one else.

Worst, this is a major boost to FF and the Greens, and will build on to their existing recovery in the opinion polls.

All-in-all, shame on Lee and Kenny for failing to do the maths and keep the pressure on the government, but above all, failing to represent the people that vote for them.

I'll remember this in the by-election.

Frank Fahy is Lost at Sea

2010-02-04T13:37:00.000-08:00

What's it all about? Well, in the year 2000, Frank Fahy, TD, landlord and property magnet, brought about a very short term compensation vehicle known as 'The Lost at Sea Scheme'. It functioned from June 2001 to 31st December 2001. The purpose of the scheme was to offer compensation in respect to any vessels lost at sea from 1980 to 1990 before the fishing boat registry came into being.

Specifically, this compensation was to be given to fishing families unable, for financial or related reasons, to continue with their tradition.

Seems reasonable? Hmm. There were 67 applicants for compensation, and only 6 were deemed to qualify for compensation. 2 of these happened to be constituents of Mr Fahy. It then transpires that of the €2.8m compensation paid, 75% of this money went to these same two constituents. Not only that, but Mr Fahy consulted with these two individuals 4 months before the launch of the scheme, and, wrote a letter two months before the scheme ended congratulating these same two constituents about the success of their application.

All of which was unlikely to have gone noticed except that 6 parties then complained to the Ombudsman regarding their lack of success in receiving compensation. 5 of these the Ombudsman did not uphold, but in the case of the sixth, the Byrne family, who lost a father, a brother and two other crew with the loss of the Skifjord in 1981, she agreed that €250,000 worth of compensation because the scheme was fatally flawed.

The design of the scheme and the manner in which it was advertised were contrary to fair and sound administration and that these shortcomings were factors in the Byrne family not qualifying for assistance under the scheme.

Weaknesses in the design process included a lack of adequate research of files held within the department regarding vessels lost at sea during the relevant period, lack of documented analysis of the pros and cons of the Scheme’s qualifying criteria and a failure to include provision for the exercise of discretion in the vetting of applications

(Advertising of the scheme) should have been more thorough, comprehensive and targeted ...some prospective applicants were put in a more advantageous position than others as they were written to directly by the department and the minister to inform then about the Scheme when it was launched.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/1214/breaking49.htm

An interesting transcript of Dáil questions here:

http://www.kildarestreet.com/debate/?id=2009-10-15.343.10

Has Tom Sheahan (FG, Kerry South) saying:

It was the way it was worked. Four months before the scheme was launched the then Minister met with the two applicants and told them to apply. The closing date for the scheme was December 2001 yet the Minister wrote to the two applicants in October 2001 and congratulated them. Thereafter, the Attorney General’s advice was that they had to receive this settlement because of the Minister’s letter. This was a con job and a set-up. I ask the Minister of State, Deputy Sargent, while he is present, if he still believes this con job is worthy of a complaint to the Standards in Public Office Commission.

As the Ombudsman has been unable to reach agreement with the Department of Agriculture and Fisheries, she has decided to refer to the Oireachtas, for only the second time since the office was founded in the 1980's.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2010/0204/1224263735064.html

It can be argued that the Ombudsman's findings are incorrect as the Byrne's processed their claim outside of the terms of conditions of the scheme, but what can't be refuted, is that the scheme itself was fundamentally flawed and designed in part to favour and benefit the then minister's constituents.

John Gormley and the Poolbeg Incinerator

2010-02-03T06:22:00.000-08:00

It was interesting listening to Gormley's interview on RTE just recently. Sean O'Rourke noted that Gormley has a 'no incinerator here' sticker on his home window. 'How can you be so sure' says Gormley. 'Well, do you have one or not?' 'Yes, but interesting to know that' says Gormley obviously horrified that some media people are looking to see what's he stuck on his windows.....

Anyway, Gormley says he is not politically motivated in trying to scrap or reduce the size of the incinerator, which is totally untrue. Actually, and John, you can go after me for this, you're lying. This is completely politically motivated and anybody who thinks otherwise is using complete SPiN.

The really, really funny thing was Gormley complaining that DCC had pushed through the deal before the election, so they could say they were following government policy. That's terrible. That's almost as bad as Dick Roche signing off the papers for the N3 bypass before Gormley could take his ministerial seat.

Also, Gormley was on about the fact that he wants to concentrate on MBT plants (Mechanical Biological Treatment) to handle certain waste materials, and indeed opened one only recently in Navan. Who operates this plant? Why Panda do. Is there a connection? No, other than the fact that Panda are one of the companies that raised the recent successful objection to try and halt the site or reduce its capacity.

This is big business talking here, We've got a battle against the existing waste management companies and a new bully on the block in the shape of Covanta. Then we have the political fallout between DCC and John Gormley. And now we have other government agencies involved like the National Development Finance Agency that agreed that the project was good value for money in 2007 and now the ESRI have made Gormley look like a complete mug.

This all stinks, and I mean that in every phrase of the word.

Lotto for Haiti

2010-01-22T10:59:00.000-08:00

Here's an idea.

How about for the next Lotto (Saturday's), we as a nation give the entire take to the people of Haiti? In addition to all prizes won. Should generate a good few million as I suspect that there will be a bigger contribution than normal.

As people will know that they are giving the money (and potential winnings) to charity, it would be a good test case to see if we are one of the most charitable countries in the world.

This example could serve as a very useful for all countries in the aftermath of a catastrophe.

Martin Cullen

2010-01-22T09:40:00.000-08:00

I have a very strong disregard of Martin Cullen, at best he a classic example of an underachieving gombeen promoted above his station purely in his ability to garner votes in his own constituency.

He is a perfect example of what is wrong with this country where ability, competence and morals come way down the list in terms of boxes governments tick when they are looking for ministers.

In addition, his comments comparing his treatment to that of a rape victim were crass. I'm not sure if the speech was impromptu or rehearsed. If the latter, then clearly this ties in with my remarks above.

However, I do find myself in agreement that certain sections of the media, in particularly the 'Irish' Mail, were obsessed in their hounding of Cullen with regard to a perceived affair and favouritism shown to Monica Leech. His statement that his children were on the receiving end of bullying and had to move schools has a ring of truth to it.

Regardless of his ineptitude, nobody deserves to have their family subjected to that abuse if the source for which is media driven. He is relatively unique as a FF minister in being the subject of intense media intrusion, resulting in what appeared to be slander and lies. Cullen deserves our ridicule and bile based on his performance as a minister, but no more than that.

Time for Real change Mr. Obama

2010-01-18T00:02:00.000-08:00

The premise of this is simple. Obama wants to get out of Iraq and Afghanistan as cleanly as possible, it's unlikely - hopefully - that the US will enter into a major conflict again during his tenure.

If Obama wants to wrest opinion in favour of the US and its foreign policies then I would suggest that they set up a couple of task forces on either side of the world to deal with any potential humanitarian crises. Haiti is comparatively lucky being so close to the US coast, but nonetheless, with so much manpower and logistics consumed in their current conflicts, the resources are just not there to expedite the rescue effort.

The US can use these task forces on a dual mandate of rescue efforts as well as regional stability. Rather than focusing on the regime change aspect and then getting bogged down in impossible democratic agendas, they could have for example, toppled the Taliban in Afghanistan and then left it to the tribal elders to sort things out.

It seems to me, that recently the level and scale of catastrophes in the world is increasing in scale and severity. I am well aware that the UN are supposed to provide the relief effort and logistics to combat disasters, but in reality, not much happens without the support of the US military.

Time for change.

2010-01-16T14:34:00.000-08:00

I like Jean Byrne - she obviously is looking for a man in her life based on the SPACE 1999 consecutive outfits she's worn last night and tonight. The green one tonight here and apparently the scandalised Mrs. Malbekh informs me the silver last night.

I'm curious, were these part of a buy one, get one free (we usually call these BOGOF), or did she get three of them, and the vampish red is tomorrow night?

Can't wait.

Apologies for this post but 'tis Christmas and I need a distraction from the serious stuff.

http://www.politics.ie/media/121229-jean-byrne-met-eireann-what-colour-next.html

On Bees - this one from P.ie 10/11/09

2010-01-16T14:23:00.001-08:00

http://www.politics.ie/environment/118208-bees.html

Some years ago I was on a fruit farm in north county Dublin, which was cultivating strawberry plants out of season in plastic tunnels for the multiples. We were discussing a lot of issues, mostly multiple related, when the talk revolved around the more technical aspects of fruit growing.

It was the first time that I stated to understand the real importance of pollination, because the 'farmer' was using imported bumblebees to propagate his crop. In this particular instance, the advantages were that the bumblebees worked in relatively cold temperatures and operated in twilight hours, both very useful in an Irish climate.

So on a wider level did you know that bees, and honeybees in particular, pollinate the following crops: apples, pears, tangerines, peaches, soybeans, pumpkins, squash, cucumbers, cherries, blueberries, raspberries, blackberries, strawberries, carrots, broccoli, avocados and almonds?

In US terms, this is equivalent to $15b worth of crops. The US, in terms of bees is a basket case. On average 30% of hives have died off over the last three years owing to a variety of reasons, the most serious being Colony Collapse Disorder or CCD.

In CCD, the hive adults just simply vanish leaving the queen and a few hatched young workers. What makes it more unusual is that the hive remains untouched by neighbouring ones, who normally would plunder the honey and resources of hives affected by parasites and diseases.

As the bee genome has been completed, scientists researching the issue have identified differences between healthy and unhealthy colonies. It turns out that most of the various camps were right, although on a limited basis. So in other words the factors involved are viruses, fungi, pesticides, varroa mite and nutrition. Essentially, honey bees are under attack form all sides because increasingly they are operating in an artificial environment.

In the rest of the word, honeybee propagation of commercial crops is estimated as €215b. In Europe, CCD in conjunction with the varroa mite has decimated hives, but the carnage is far worse in the wild and native colonies. The dreadful effect of this is to reduce the pollination of wildflowers which in turn reduces the quality and quantity of honey produced.

Here in Ireland, where bees are reckoned to contribute €85m to the economy, the last three summers have been disastrous for our native and bred colonies. The key period of growth in hives in late June and July have coincided with the worst weather imaginable. The varroa mite has still to work its way through the existing colonies leaving behind more resistant strains.

In terms of a functioning population, our bee colonies are dying. There is very little or no commercial beekeeping in this country as we cannot compete with the more commercial and weather friendly countries in Europe, Australia and South America. All that remains is a steadfast group of hobbyists determined to maintain an ancient and essential tradition. CCD has yet to effect this country, one can only hope that our diverse spread in agriculture will ensure this won't happen.

So what can we do? I don't expect you all to become apiarists, but for those of you that have gardens or terraces or patios, think a little about what plants and flowers you will grow next year. Put a little time and effort into creating a wild area for flowers, or just plant flowers that are rich in nectar and bloom in the more productive months.

Bees are like canaries in a mineshaft, we need to take heed the damage we are causing to our environment.

Where have you been?

2010-01-16T14:03:00.000-08:00

Well, @ politics.ie for the last 9 months.

Just to show I haven't been lazy I'll post some highlights..

The Real Dons

2009-04-20T02:48:00.000-07:00

Supporting a football team is an emotive experience at the best and worst of times. Having been born in the 60's my football supporting years were based on Leeds United and to a lesser degree, Liverpool.

Breaking away from the family mould was quite difficult, but it was aided by a mutual friend who started to support Aston Villa in the old second division. You don't have to support First division teams.

After a lot of searching I found myself drawn to Wimbledon FC having remembered them from a Leeds United cup game some time beforehand.

So from 1983 I switched my allegiance and had a roller coaster 20 years or so of promotion, winning the FA Cup, beating the likes of Man U, but then followed by crazy management, bad signings (John Hartson anybody?) and finally demotion.

The final cremation of the coffin was the rent-a-city action by the Football Association that saw the team transferred to Milton Keynes. Suddenly I didn't have a team anymore. So the real fans decided to form their own.

Well I'm please to say that I have supported AFC Wimbledon since their inception and view them as the sole continuation of the old Wimbledon FC. Next week they will get promotion to the Blue Square Premier (nee Conference) and be one promotion away from getting their league status back.

The fact that the team is run as a trust owned by the fans, that Wimbledon has been so badly treated by the Football League, and that even now, they find themselves mired in controversy and extremes of luck makes supporting them a very easy choice.

I don't think anyone honestly thinks they will be able to replicate the previous successes of earlier years, but this supporter would be ecstatic if they just got into the league again.

I just hope we can drop the AFC bit at that stage.

The Little Master

2009-03-29T14:16:00.000-07:00

With apologies to Mr Sachin Tendulkar, but there's another little master on the block, one that we've known about for a while. But with Ireland's recent epoch making Grand Slam you have to look through the superlatives and realise that Declan Kidney's management has been the main difference from this rugby team going from perennial bridesmaids to the real thing.

Yes, notwithstanding Mr O'Driscoll's sudden return to form and the additon of some new blood like Rob Kearney. This season's grand slam has been about the inexorable Munster like tenacity of victory by sheer self-belief and determination to win.

This all-pervading confidence is infectious, up to the point that even the Irish, the most self-defeating nation on earth actually believed that we were going to win the grand slam. Let's not say that we thought that the class act of Stephen Jones was going to miss his last minute kick, just that the day would give just rewards to the better team.

So Mr Kidney, thanks for the grand slam, which in your modesty you'll diffuse the gratitude to anyone but yourself. But I recognise a master when I see one.

Water Charges

2009-03-19T02:41:00.000-07:00

So, on the way back home in the car and all the talk was about water rates. Mary Wilson was conducting a not-too-brilliant conversation with Joanne Tuffy from the Labour party and Oisin from one of those ecological do goody goody NGO's.

All rather frustrating, I don't see the solution as being particularly taxing so to speak.

In relation to taxes, people are looking for two things. They want fair taxes based on ability to pay, and they want transparency on where those taxes go.

For example the taxes we pay for the roads infrastructure and all the associated costs is a fraction of the revenue the government used to generate through VRT, fuel taxes and road taxes. While there has been a huge improvement in our road structure recently it really only brings us up to a base minimal standard. All the other taxes raised have been used for a variety of other forms of public spending.

So when we tax the public for water charges, we need to show that all the income is used exclusively to do the following:

1. Reduce the amount of water households use. The waste of water in this country is enormous, because rather like a free bar people abuse the privilege. The only way to stop the abuse is to charge people for it. Personally I'd estimate you could reduce water usage by 40% with a direct tax.

2. Improving the infrastructure. So we lose 30% of our water through leaking pipes etc. It'll cost a lot to replace and fix these, and you'll never be able to cure it, but you could cut this water loss in half. Infrastructure also refers to supplying meters to every house and giving discount vouchers for people to purchase water butts.

3. Improving the quality of water. Because of our unique heritage I think we should be aiming to have the best quality water in Europe. Why do people need to buy bottles water if the tap water provided is of a better quality. Remember Dasani?

So how do we implement this tax? Fairly?

You'll need some independent expert to come up with a formulae where you enter in # number in the household and their ages. This will give you a quarterly amount that they should be consuming. Now take 10% off this volume. Every unit that the household goes above this volume realises itself as a direct water tax.

For the poor, pensioners and the like, add 10% to their volume and tax them only if they exceed this inflated amount.

Will this raise enough tax? I don't know, but it's a start one feels. But here's the beauty, once you've paid for the infrastructure and purification you can drastically decrease the taxation on the public, because all you're paying for is the maintenance of your water systems.

But you're still left with all the measures needed to reduce the wastage.

If I was in government I would be talking to the UK to set up a joint water pipeline to pump all our excess water into southern Europe. Because we know that water in the 21st century is going to become a very valuable commodity.

My suggestion would be for our high quality purified water should be sold on a commercial basis to southern EU countries and the proceeds used to deliver heavily subsidised water to Africa using the same pipelines.

What's not to like?

Champions League

2009-03-11T02:11:00.000-07:00

A bit of a conundrum this. I can imagine Sepp Blatter choking on his cheese board last night as Liverpool made Real Madrid look like Blue Square opponents, come to think of it, that's a bit unfair on the Blue Square.

With Chelsea sneaking in against Juve and Man U + Arsenal holding the upper hand it's not reaching too far to presume that there will be 4 premiership teams in the last 8. It's well known that Mr Blatter doesn't like the premiership format of loadsamoney clubs and this will only harden his attitude to return to the days of limiting the foreign players on the playing surface.

I don't think this is necessarily fair on Arsenal and Man U who have strong policies on recruiting cheaply when the talent is cheap and nuturing them to fruition. On Liverpool whose transfer policy is plainly daft and on Chelsea and now Man City, he may have a point.

The interesting part is that while the Premier League is head and shoulders above the other leagues - not necessarily in entertainment - and the teams are slaying their opponents in the Champions League, it's obvious that the format is broken in contributing to the national team.

I really can't see England ever winning another World cup or a Euro one for that matter.

As such, maybe Mr Blatter has a point.

The Spirit Level

2009-03-09T00:41:00.000-07:00

Just came across this review in the Sunday Times on a book called :

The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett

In essence the authors of the book, Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett have come across a killer set of statistics. They compared incomes in the top 20 countries in the world as well as the 50 States and used this against social problems evident in those countries such as drug abuse, shortened life spans, murders, teenage pregnancy etc.

Perhaps not too surprisingly those countries or States that have the widest disparity of incomes also have the highest levels of social problems, and not just amongst the poor. The evidence also suggests that those in middle income brackets suffer from stress leading to depression and other illnesses.

Examples of unequal societies are the UK, most of the US and Portugal. Examples of more equal societies are Scandinavian countries and Japan.

The recommendation seems to be a higher level of taxation for those on higher levels of income or a legislation to restrict a maximum income. It's all rather interesting stuff, the current banking crisis affecting the world clearly shows that the liberal greed system endemic to western capitalism doesn't work.

Surely we are looking at clinical solutions based on solid evidence and this book would appear to offer a motion for change. The review in the Times by John Carey is here

http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/books/non-fiction/article5859108.ece

The authors also have a website here

www.equalitytrust.org.uk/

It usually takes a long time for ideas like this to filter down to our politicians, but in this instance let's hope they make a exception.

The Irish economy

2009-03-04T07:22:00.000-08:00

We're in pretty big trouble here. There's so much crap flying around it's difficult to isolate the issues. Broadly speaking there are two main problems, a spin off problem based on the first two, and a solution that resolves one but not both.

Problem #1. The Bank Crisis.

So our banks are the same as everybody else's. While we were not effected by the sub-prime problems in the States nor the kind of corporate greed of credit default swaps, we just had greedy bankers giving away truckloads of borrowed cash to an increasingly heated property market.

You can't blame the government for this with one exception, regulation. Who regulates the regulator? When you consider that outside agencies such as The New York Times were pointing the finger at Ireland's lack of fiscal governance, you'd think someone up high would take an interest in it.

The most damning thing is potentially still out there. From what I can see it appears our ex-financial regulator, civil servants within the Central Bank, and certain Irish banks like IL&P and Anglo-Irish actively colluded together to lie to the Stock exchange, outside investors, and the Irish people.

So either someone in the government was aware of this and should be sacked, or else nobody was aware of it and so were therefore merely stupid and incompetent. As you may be aware, being stupid and incompetent is not a sackable offence in this country, just look at our current Tanaiste, Mary Coughlan.

Problem #2 The balance of payments.

Look guys, what goes up must come down. I don't think any country in the world that has gone through a property boom where prices doubled or tripled hasn't gotten away with the fabled 'soft landing'. The prices will always crash.

For the last 12 years we have had a government with Plan A. Make revenue from property sales. Plan B was when people sold their house and made lots of money they would buy nice new shiny 4X4's and give themselves lots of nice things they really didn't need. So the government had the VAT and VRT revenues lining their pockets.

Plan C was to give most of this money away in tax cuts (so they would get elected) and tax breaks for the wealthy, or at least those of us who could afford accountants.

Plan D was to create lots of jobs in the public sector and pay them whatever they wanted and under any terms and conditions, without any benchmarking on trivial things like skill, ability and value for money.

Because there's no tomorrow is there?

So now we have a situation where the government have to borrow €55m every day just to keep the show going because they, and they alone, have wasted the opportunity to make us into a fiscally responsible country like say Germany.

I've yet to hear anyone from the government apologise for ruining our economy. When you consider that our current Taoiseach was the minister for finance for 4 of the more recent years, the buck has to stop there.

It's said that you get the government you deserve. Are the Irish that bad a people?

Problem #3 The spin off

There are two organisations that give countries and financial institutions credit ratings by their clinical and expert perspectives. One is Moody's and the other is Standard & Poors. As it stands at the moment, they consider us to be the riskiest country in the EU zone to give credit to.

That means we're riskier to lend money to than Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece. No offence to Greeks but your country is a basket case, and apparently we're worse. Being riskier means it costs more money to borrow and the cost of insuring that money is higher too.

Why is this? Well it's a combination of problems #1 & #2. But critically, it's also a commentary on how the government are handling the crisis and how much confidence they have in our banking and regulation system.

Yes, we're that bad. Don't take my word for it, take the word of the market. And as we've seen over the last few months, time and time again the government have been wrong, and the market has been right.

The solution. But only for one

We had a finance minister who some time ago thought it would be a good idea to save a bit of money for a rainy day. His name was Charlie McCreevy. He was exiled from Minister for Finance to EU Commissioner some time ago to be replaced by the wonderfully short sighted Brian Cowan.

Charlie, and I'm not a fan as he's as much to blame as Mr Cowan, decided to put away and invest 1% of GDP every year. This fund was worth (even after a woeful year in investments) about €20 billion at the end of 2008. This, and only this, is keeping our heads above water.

In itself it would be enough to resolve our banking crisis. In itself it would be enough to reduce the chronic tax burden and enormous cuts we are going to experience over the next 4-5 years.

But it can't do both.

It just shows what could and should have been done over the last 12 years.

There's no point saying that we're learning from our mistakes, these kind of errors only happen once a century.

So that's it, we're screwed.

Thanks Fianna Fail.

MMO's and WoW

2009-03-01T13:48:00.000-08:00

Greetings,

So for the first post I reckon I should talk about something that's been a ridiculously large part of my life for the last 3 years. My good RL mates played EQ and then Guild Wars, so when I finally got a Dell that could had a half decent graphics set up, I pressurised them into picking an MMO that we all would play.

WoW

I also hooked a few more friends into this (I can be very persuasive). Luckily no-one got divorced, I think we all got close at some point, at least those of us who are married with kids. Needless to say following my own 'I'm an individual' traits I did things very differently to everyone else.

I started off as a NE Priest, a good choice as it turns out as healing classes appeal to me. This is old WoW and I quit at level 52 as the alternative was divorce. A compromise was for me to stop playing with my RL friends and jump ships to the Horde (Hellscream EU).

I have to say I had a great time of it. Horde on HS seemed to be a little more mature, and a reasonable stint on The Lost Souls guild had great benefits in teaching me the trust and tenets behind the weird and wonderful relationships that people have online and the politics that go with it.

After my year in exile I headed back to my RL mates. I didn't fit in with their very large guild so I found another more my size in Cheese n Crackers Co. There followed my most enjoyable moments in WoW doing Karazhan etc with some lovely people as a resto shaman.

I wouldn't say I was any good, I never intended to be someone to look up to in WoW, I guess I'm more a social gamer than anything else. Things didn't work out though, so I went back to my RL mates running a Thursday night raid scene.

It is more fun with your mates, no doubt about it. I guess because we've known each other for years before MMO's means that any criticism and bitching never amounts to much thank God.

Sad to say that me and WoW went our separate ways in February. I bought but never played WotLK. I was levelling up a toon on the achievements system from scratch, got disillusioned when Blizz made some changes and lost heart in TBC, I always hated Hellfire Penninsular. I guess it was bound to happen at some stage.

So, so long WoW, thanks for the memories. I shudder to see time /played and think about how many languages I could have learned, diplomas earned, good deeds completed.

But, it has been a major part of my life and I don't regret it.

Not On My Watch

The Three Ages of Brian Lenihan

Death of Irish Industry 2012-2012

Greece vs Ireland - Austerity Measures

2011 and the Death of the Gombeen Princes

Paddy Power odds on final recapitalising Anglo-Irish

Selections Odds Stake E/W

Total stake: 0.00

Maximum return limits may apply please check our Terms and Conditions
Potential returns: N/A

BS_HELP

Here we go again....

Not buying the Sindo anymore

John Gormley, Grandmaster Quisling and Hypocrite

Theory-crafting on the conspiracy behind the Bank Guarantee Scheme

The Real Politik behind Quinn Group

J'accuse - Brian Lenihan

Frank Fahey sees Shell to the sea shore

AIB give two fingers to common sense....

Trevor Sargent - end of the government? maybe not.....

On George Lee resigning...

Frank Fahy is Lost at Sea

John Gormley and the Poolbeg Incinerator

Lotto for Haiti

Martin Cullen

Time for Real change Mr. Obama

On Bees - this one from P.ie 10/11/09

Where have you been?

The Real Dons

The Little Master

Water Charges

Champions League

The Spirit Level

The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett

The Irish economy

MMO's and WoW

Not On My Watch

The Three Ages of Brian Lenihan

Death of Irish Industry 2012-2012

Greece vs Ireland - Austerity Measures

2011 and the Death of the Gombeen Princes

Paddy Power odds on final recapitalising Anglo-Irish

Selections Odds Stake E/W

Total stake: 0.00

Maximum return limits may apply please check our Terms and ConditionsPotential returns: N/A

BS_HELP

Here we go again....

Not buying the Sindo anymore

John Gormley, Grandmaster Quisling and Hypocrite

Theory-crafting on the conspiracy behind the Bank Guarantee Scheme

The Real Politik behind Quinn Group

J'accuse - Brian Lenihan

Frank Fahey sees Shell to the sea shore

AIB give two fingers to common sense....

Trevor Sargent - end of the government? maybe not.....

On George Lee resigning...

Frank Fahy is Lost at Sea

John Gormley and the Poolbeg Incinerator

Lotto for Haiti

Martin Cullen

Time for Real change Mr. Obama

On Bees - this one from P.ie 10/11/09

Where have you been?

The Real Dons

The Little Master

Water Charges

Champions League

The Spirit Level

The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett

The Irish economy

MMO's and WoW

Maximum return limits may apply please check our Terms and Conditions
Potential returns: N/A